No Irish need apply

The quivering hands indicate Parkinson’s disease, though no outward signs of the rumoured stomach cancer are visible. But one thing’s for sure. Il Papa’s roller-coaster ride is almost over. His 25-year stay at the top may rival the Rolling Stones for longevity, but John Paul II is currently completing his farewell tour, the final date of which is… some time in what everyone believes, but won’t admit, is the near future.

What do we have to look forward to? Nine days of mourning. Cardinals arriving from all over the world. The enormous televised funeral. No autopsy performed, which can lead to wild media speculation if the pope dies suddenly, as occurred with John Paul I. No longer than fifteen days after death the conclave is convened. All Cardinals under the age of 80 can vote. White smoke issues from the Sistine Chapel roof. The new religious leader of almost one-fifth of the world’s population is elected. This is about as far from democracy as you can get. But what’s important here is power, and not necessarily for the people.

Even insider journalists at the Vatican admit they have no idea of the real behind-the-scenes shenanigans. The Vatican may resemble a relic of a bygone time but it is still a hugely wealthy and powerful institution. To win the boss gig involves method, manoeuvre and manipulation so it was no accident that one of the Borgias got the job in 15th century Italy. The contenders for the current race are slightly less infamous, though many of them are more conservative than the current pontiff. All but five of the 134 voting cardinals were appointed by Pope John Paul II, so don’t expect any radicals among them.

One of the biggest considerations will be the nationality of the aspirants. Of the five countries with the biggest Catholic populations, only one (Italy) is European. That means – sit down for this – no Irish candidate. A crying shame considering the spiritually ‘pure’ candidates we could offer. Instead, the huge growth of Catholicism in Third World countries will probably play a part in this contest.

Will the cardinals choose a young and healthy man, or an older one whose tenure may be, ahem, less lengthy? Do the Italian cardinals want one of their own to resume the 500-year rule broken by Poland’s Karol Wojtyla? Or is there a more physical rationale? Vatican correspondent John Allen cites an old Italian saying, “Always follow a fat pope with a skinny pope.”

The cardinals have a tough job. Even more so given that all of the politicking and engineering has to go on in secret as no Vatican official dare mention the possibility of the Pope’s demise. In addition, direct canvassing would stop any papal hopefuls in their cassocks. A Vatican adage has it that he who walks into the conclave a Pope, walks out a Cardinal.

So who should you put your money on? Here’s a list of some safe bets and some dark horses:

Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga
Country: Honduras
Age: 60
Why? Latin American. Friend of Bono.
Why not? Compared media to Hitler.
He’s been a strong opponent of Third World debt and an advocate for the church’s anti-poverty mission. He teamed up with U2’s Bono to present a petition at the G-8 meeting in 1999, signed by 17 million people, asking for debt relief.
One problem may be his comments that press coverage of the paedophile-priest scandal reflects anti-Catholic media bias. “Only in this fashion can I explain the ferocity [in the press] that reminds me of the times of Nero and Diocletian, and more recently, of Stalin and Hitler,” he said.
Odds: 10-1

Dionigi Tettamanzi
Country: Italy
Age: 69
Why? Italian.
Why not? Italian.
Only 5 percent of the world’s Catholics live in Italy. But there may be a sense that the church went through its experimental phase by choosing a Polish pope and needs to get back to normal. Tettamanzi is chubby, smiles a lot, and last year hopped in a race car at La Manza. Too good to be true? He’s also an ultra-conservative, well-liked by the Opus Dei movement. Can’t wait.
Odds: 2-1

Francis Arinze
Country: Nigeria
Age: 70
Why? Black! Third Worlder. Understands Islam.
Why not? Black! Maybe too conservative.
Arinze’s liberal credentials may be easily read in his recent speech on family: “In many parts of world, the family is under siege, opposed by an anti-life mentality as is seen in contraception, abortion, infanticide and euthanasia. It is scorned and banalised by pornography, desecrated by fornication and adultery, mocked by homosexuality, sabotaged by irregular unions, and cut in two by divorce.”
There’s also the small matter of the world ending if there’s a black pope…
Odds 6-1

Jean-Marie Lustiger
Country: France (Archbishop of Paris)
Age: 77
Why? Jewish background! Shore up Old Europe Christendom.
Why not? Jewish background! Too old.
Lustiger’s mother, a Jew, was killed at Auschwitz. If the cardinals wanted to generate excitement in Europe, choosing Lustiger would be a dramatic way to do it. But some Jews might be outraged if he were chosen, and it may prove a problem for Catholic-Jewish relations. Plus he’s a little old, though as the Pope’s advisor he knows Vatican corridors like he knows his own bank account numbers.
Odds: 20-1

Christoph Schönborn
Country: Austria
Age: 58
Why? Intellectual heavyweight. European Christianity could use some excitement.
Why not? Europe had its chance.
This cardinal is also a count! A respected theologian, Schönborn was chosen by Pope John Paul II to serve as the general editor of the revised Catholic catechism. His big problem is his age.

Cardinal Giacomo Biffi, (Archbishop of Bologna)
Country: Italy
Age: 74
Why? Powerful friends, opposes most social liberalism.
Why not? Powerful friends not that stupid.
Theologically highly conservative and intransigent. Probably the choice of reactionary groups such as Opus Dei. Opposes feminism, pacifism, gay rights. Biffi recently suggested non-Catholics (especially Muslims) should not be allowed to settle in Italy
Odds: 10-1

Jaime Lucas Ortega y Alamino
Country: Cuba
Age: 66
Why? Communist country. Hispanic.
Why not? Communism no longer a problem.
Picking a pope from a Communist country worked well last time, so why not try again? Probably because it wouldn’t be such a big deal. Alamino has the advantages of being a bastion of faith in a godless land and being Hispanic.
Odds: 4-1

Godfried Danneels
Country: Belgium
Age: 70
Why? Witty.
Why not? Too liberal.
On the off chance that the cardinals want to go with a liberal, Danneels may be the man. Danneels is often the centre of attention, appreciated for his wit at gatherings of bishops and cardinals. The prospects of the most ‘progressive’ candidate succeeding might benefit from new electoral rules which were introduced by John Paul.
Odds: 12-1

Candidate X
Age: Unknown. Safe to say old.
Country: Unknown (think Eastern)
Why? This candidate lives in an oppressive regime so may help the underprivileged. Hasn’t frequented Vatican palaces or politics, so has no favours to pay back.
Why not? The other Cardinals don’t know him from Adam.
The cardinal, whom the Pope elected last week, must remain anonymous due to “sensitive political causes”. Rumoured to be a Chinese bishop, who could be endangered in that country were his new status known. Surely the Christian thing to do is elect him so that he can escape China and come to the West to live in unparalleled luxury?
Odds: 200-1

The race however is notoriously unpredictable. Plus there’s the chance that Pope John Paul II will live for years! But I wouldn’t bet on it…