How will Ireland fare in a world without oil?

Oil. Our whole economy and nearly everything we need for survival now derives from it – the materials and energy used to build our homes, heating and lighting, clothing and medicine, transport, food, the vast array of goods that we import. Oil and its by-products fuel our industry and commerce, provide us with agricultural fertilizers and pesticides, toothbrushes, DVDs, condoms and the elastic in our underwear.

Our society is almost entirely built upon the ability to burn cheap fossil fuels. Yet many experts agree that global oil production will peak by 2010, if it hasn’t already. What happens when the petrol supply begins to dry up? And when global demand for the remaining stocks begins to exceed the available supply?
Oil and gas production won’t cease overnight. But in the event of a global energy shortage, the remaining reserves will become the target of fierce competition between the global powers (think of war in Middle East, home to 66 per cent of the world’s oil reserves).
As a small nation, we’re over-reliant on imported energy. We lack the purchasing power to compete with larger, wealthier countries for dwindling energy stocks. How will we stay connected to the supply in this scenario?
The harsh answer is, we won’t. Some time over the next four to 20 years, we will have to learn to live without oil.
It’s to raise awareness and find solutions to the looming energy crisis that the recently-formed company Energy Futures is holding its first conference – entitled Global Energy Picture – in Dublin on 5 April.
Conference organiser Peter O’Brien became aware of the problem of peak oil when he attended the World Peak Oil Conference in Lisbon last May.
“I heard 30 papers from oil geologists, economists and government ministers from around the world, all saying yes, it’s true, oil will peak over the next few years,” he says.
“It takes a couple of decades to change a system; you can’t just flip to nuclear or wind or solar at the flick of a switch, especially when it comes to transport. Nobody’s worked out yet how to replace the oil used in our transportation system and cheap air fares will soon become a thing of the past.
“Prices for oil and gas are already going through the roof,” notes O’Brien. “Unless we get our act together, sooner than we think we’ll be looking at 40 per cent of Ireland unable to heat their homes.
“As for food,” he adds, “we practically eat oil at this stage. Your average item on a supermarket shelf will have travelled 1,500 miles to get here. You can imagine the dire consequences to our food supply if we’re still totally dependent on fossil fuels when the effects of peak oil really start to kick in.”
Chaired by author/broadcaster David McWilliams, Global Energy Picture features internationally renowned economists, geologists and energy experts aiming to help answer important questions, such as how Irish consumers can wean themselves off their oil-rich lifestyles, and where our energy is going to come from next.
“The conference will focus on solutions,” stresses O’Brien. “In Ireland we have the second largest renewable energy sources in the world, yet we’re the seventh most oil-dependent country.
“We need to see ourselves as a small business facing an economic storm – we’ve got to retro-fit our system and invest heavily now, so we can stay afloat in the age of peak oil. It’s going to take a long time putting in place everything that’s needed to get us off oil, so even if the experts saying that oil will peak in 2010 are wrong, and it doesn’t happen for another 15 years, we still need to get moving right now.
“It’ll be an expensive outlay,” says O’Brien, “but at least the lights will go on.”