World Cup Special: Fancy a Copa?

HAPPY days, comrades. That quadrennial summertime feast of breathtaking saturation football they call the World Cup is upon us again. And for a multitude of reasons, Brazil 2014 is shaping up to be potentially the greatest one yet. It is being played in the most football-obsessed country on Earth, and there are solid grounds for suspecting that the world’s supply of truly great players is at its highest in decades.
In addition, most of the games are kicking off at a distinctly punter-friendly time for the European viewer (mostly 5PM, 8PM and 11PM) – which, at least for us night owls, provides a merciful contrast with the horrors of Japan 2002, when we were somehow expected to drag ourselves out of bed and mainline enough caffeine to render us conscious in time to concentrate fully on matches of gigantic magnitude which kicked off at the unholy hour of 7am. I ended up more or less missing half the tournament, including the first ten minutes of Ireland’s first World Cup match in eight years, and I’m sure I wasn’t the only one.
One enormous black mark over the tournament is the absence of Ireland, a loss unlikely to be too deeply felt by the rest of the world. Four years ago, we at least had the small comfort of being moral World Champions after the Thierry Henry affair. This time out, our failure to qualify could hardly have been more richly deserved. The only upside of this dire state of affairs is that nobody will beat us at this World Cup: we made it to Euro 2012 two summers ago and proceeded to play some of Ireland’s worst football in living memory, suffering three sound wallopings and returning home with almighty hangovers. This time, we can settle down and get stuck into all the action unencumbered by nerves about our own prospects.
Doubtless you’ll have adopted a team by this stage, whether it’s a sympathy vote for Costa Rica or a four-figure wager on the Brazilians. Whoever you’re cheering for, enjoy the Finals. You’ll have four years to wait until the next ones roll around.

THE CONTENDERS

Of the 32 qualifiers, 13 countries are considered live enough contenders to have been given respectful quotes by the bookies, usually (though not always) the most reliable arbiters of where exactly each team stands in the pecking order. The market is headed by BRAZIL and their deadliest rivals ARGENTINA, in that order: Brazil have the benefit of home advantage (which could work against them as the pressure mounts) and unequalled pedigree (five World Cup wins) while Argentina’s attacking options (a likely front trio of Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero and Gonzalo Higuain) look like the best available to any of the finalists.
As you’d expect, the South American teams are likely to be favoured (though not to the extent some seem to assume) by the conditions, which means that COLOMBIA, CHILE and URUGUAY can’t be discounted, though only Uruguay of the trio have any track record of success at the tournament. (The sixth South American qualifiers, Ecuador, are available at 2001 if you’re tempted). This leaves eight European contenders of substance, with perennial contenders GERMANY and reigning champions SPAIN leading a contingent that also includes ENGLAND, PORTUGAL, FRANCE, HOLLAND, ITALYBELGIUM.
So to the big question that has undoubtedly been on all your minds for many months now: who is Foul Play investing his hard-earned on? Needless to say, this isn’t the sort of thing one should rush into without considerable deliberation, so I’ve kept a watching brief for the last few months, aware that untimely injuries, squad schisms and other unforeseen Acts of God can derail the best teams’ plans at very short notice. There is a quartet of teams clearly rated head and shoulders above the pack in all betting markets: to wit, Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Spain.
The temptation to side with Messrs. Messi and Aguero was immense, but at an eye-opening 13/2, I’ve elected to keep faith with the World and European champions Spain, who have beaten everything that’s been put in front of them for almost eight years now, yet somehow have slipped to an insulting FOURTH spot in the betting. The Spanish vintage of recent years is unquestionably already one of the all-time great teams, and were they to win a fourth international Finals in a row, they would surely lay to rest any argument about where they stand in the all-time firmament.
The doubts surrounding SPAIN concern the risk of ‘burnout’ after years of non-stop football, and the advancing age of some of their key operators. But the latter has been overstated: Xavi is 34 but still a mighty force, Xabi Alonso is 32 and Iniesta 30: they’re hardly ready to be pensioned off just yet. The long-dreaded burnout is unlikely to strike with a vengeance either: the secret of Spain’s success has been breathtakingly simple. If you keep the ball all day long, the other team has next to no chance of scoring and will eventually get tired before you do. This enables them to conserve energy quite efficiently while passing opponents to death, a factor whose importance can’t be overstated when extra-time and penalties are required to settle the issue.
Spain don’t score heaps of goals, except against poor teams (the four they rattled in against Ireland on a miserable rainy night in Gdansk leap to mind), but their defensive record is quite phenomenal. In the tournaments of 2008, 2010 and 2012, Spain conceded a grand total of 6 goals in their 19 games against the highest-quality opposition (again, Ireland perhaps excepted). More to the point, in the 10 one-off knockout games, they gave away no goals at all. That’s otherworldly. Their display in the Euro decider two years ago, when they ripped Italy asunder in the course of a 4-0 win, might have been the best 90-minute display of football international (or, for that matter, club) football has ever seen.
ARGENTINA could, and maybe will, sweep all before them. Messi and Aguero are terrifyingly potent attacking forces, and if Diego Maradona could drag an otherwise unexceptional gang all the way to glory in 1986, Messi is surely capable of doing something similar with an undeniably superior supporting cast. Their draw has been kind (can you see Iran, Nigeria and Bosnia-Herzegovina sending them home?) and the climate will hardly be a problem. The defence has its critics (Manchester City’s lumbering centre-back Martin Demichelis can resemble a penalty waiting to be given away), but overall there is enough talent here to go a very long way. A wager on Argentina to face Spain in the Final at 40/1 is, at the very least, likely to give you a good few weeks’ bang for your buck.
The other two designated super-heavyweights, GERMANY and BRAZIL, don’t seem to offer great value. I’m having to keep quiet about this because, as I write, the HP office is populated by a cheerful contingent of optimistic Brazilians who seem none-too-quietly confident about the month that lies ahead, but this doesn’t strike me as a vintage Brazilian line-up. Their likely starting eleven contains Spurs reserve Paulinho and players who earn their crust with QPR, Wolfsburg and Fluminense. Neymar has the potential to shine spectacularly, Hulk could seize the moment and there is much to admire about the Chelsea trio of Ramires, Willian and Oscar, but overall it doesn’t look like a squad that really merits the status of favourites, and the frenzied support of 200 million people may be as much of a curse as a blessing as the stakes get higher and higher.
Germany will have their backers, but they haven’t won a major tournament since 1996 and I’m not convinced they’re about to end that drought. Bayern Munich’s halo slipped considerably over the course of three hours’ football against Real Madrid recently wherein they were slaughtered 5-0 on aggregate, and for all the mouth-watering array of options available to Joachim Low in midfield, the defence is relatively pedestrian. At the other end, the line looks likely to be led by 35-year-old Miroslav Klose, who has compiled a wonderful World Cup record down the years but cannot seriously be still ranked among the world’s elite strikers (if he ever was). Perhaps goals will flood in from what is undoubtedly a damn imposing five-man midfield of Schürrle, Kroos, Schweinsteiger, Muller and Ozil, but it’s more likely that they’ll be frustrated sooner or later.
Beyond those four teams, the market drops off sharply, to the point where BELGIUM (at 20/1) are rated fifth by every bookmaker. We’ve probably missed a trick by failing to snap up the 300/1 that was available two years ago, but such is life. In truth, despite the nagging sense that they may be no more than ‘flavour of the month’ and the undeniably annoying phenomenon of football ‘hipsters’ (cough) adopting them overnight, the Belgians are absolutely capable of winning this thing and, even now, may not be a bad bet.
After about 20 years of relative mediocrity, manager Marc ‘Fighting Pig’ Wilmots has a uniquely talented, once-in-a-lifetime generation of emerging talent available. Keeper Thibaud Courtois has been heroic all season for unlikely Spanish title-winners Atletico Madrid; captain and centre-back Vincent Kompany is a magnificent leader who has led Man City to two title triumphs; Eden Hazard’s playmaking talent borders on the ridiculous; and Romelu Lukaku may be literally a few weeks away from going globally stratospheric. That’s a pretty strong spine for any football team, and they’re not exactly surrounded by nonentities. Man United fans may have yet to fully warm to Marouane Fellaini, but they’re already drooling over what Adnan Januzaj can do, while the Spurs contingent of Nacer Chadli, Jan Vertonghen and Mousa Dembele will be familiar to most. It’s probably two years early for this team to win, but they will surely be a pleasure to watch.
What of the lesser-spotted South American challenge? There will be those of you who draw a line straight through the prospects of COLOMBIA and CHILE on the initially reasonable grounds that they’ve never made any impact on a World Cup (Chile’s progress to the semis as hosts in 1962 notwithstanding) – but that may be unwise. The gruelling process of qualifying from South America required teams to play 16 games to make the cut, and now that they’re there, all the ‘home’ nations (bar probably Ecuador) have the firepower to cause anyone major problems. URUGUAY have the almighty Luis Suarez, Chile’s Juventus midfielder Arturo Vidal can already be considered one of the world’s top box-to-box midfielders, and even without the injured Falcao, Colombia are a battle-hardened and well-drilled unit brimful of attacking threat. Forget ancient history: all three are live and dangerous runners for the prize, and will not be easily overcome in conditions well suited to them. Of the trio, Colombia are preferred by virtue of having an infinitely easier path to the knockout stages, whereas both Chile and Uruguay will have to hit the ground running in extremely testing first-round groups.
What of dear old IN-GER-LAND? Well, I can think of several friends for whom I would be delighted on a personal level if they went all the way, though the ensuing media frenzy would surely prompt me to move to Antarctica within hours of Stevie Gerrard lifting the glittering golden trophy, if it comes to that. As you may have noticed, the jingoistic fervour that usually accompanies the Three Lions to major Finals has abated considerably. I have yet to hear a single pundit actually tip England to win the World Cup (bar the Racing Post’s peerless Steve Palmer, who I’m fairly sure was joking) and the penny appears to have dropped among Fleet Street’s finest that, in fact, they have no divine right to win the thing and might actually have a hell of a task on their hands clearing the first-round group.
One side-effect of this is that England are no longer quoted at ridiculously stingy prices, and the 28/1 is actually pretty tempting for a team whose starting line-up is entirely drawn from the Premier League. Debate continues to rage over whether the out-of-sorts Wayne Rooney, suddenly starting to look like an old-stager at 28, ought to be dropped in favour of the youthful vigour and fearless enterprise of players like Adam Lallana, Daniel Sturridge, Ross Barkley, Raheem Sterling, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Jordan Henderson etc (they can only select 11 players, but you get my drift). The more I look at this squad, the more I like their chances. The group is undoubtedly a fucker, with both ITALY and Uruguay lying in wait, but I have a sneaking feeling England will clear the first-round hurdle and might just go a long way further than they currently dare to hope. Should you back them? That’s a matter between you and your conscience.
Their opening game is against the wily Italians, who have won this thing four times and have a well-earned reputation for unparalleled savvy in tight contests. This could go either way: they won the lot in 2006 with a remarkably ordinary array of striking options, then crashed out hideously four years ago, finishing bottom of a group that contained Paraguay, New Zealand and Slovakia. Loose-cannon striker Mario Balotelli could be one of the stars of the tournament or could land himself a red card in the first minute of the first game, depending on what sort of mood he’s in. His timing, instincts and penalty-taking prowess are all first-rate, and he’s an intriguing runner for the Golden Boot at 50/1, though any failure to clear the first round would obviously torpedo that one. Andrea Pirlo, even at 35, is still probably the world’s best classical playmaker, the defence is typically rock-solid, and though there are other teams who get the nod in preference, the Azzurri are not easy to dismiss at 25/1.
Mad Mario’s claims notwithstanding, my selection for the Golden Boot has long been the least confusing conundrum of this World Cup. PORTUGAL’s Cristiano Ronaldo (16/1) is a goalscoring machine and a prodigiously talented footballer with an ego to match, who undoubtedly sees himself winning the trophy single-handedly. He is perhaps not the most likeable player on the planet (the sight of him poncing around shirtless after scoring a barely-relevant footnote penalty in Real Madrid’s recent Champions League win was an undignified spectacle) but the lad is an absolute phenomenon. 177 goals in the 165 games since he joined Real five summers ago is a truly shocking figure which speaks for itself, and his passion for national duty is not in question. The weakness in Portugal’s line-up, as ever, is their lack of a top-quality No.9 (Helder Postiga will start) but Ronaldo, equally capable of slalom-running his way through massed defences or firing in 30-yard thunderbolts, is certainly capable of making up the shortfall. They are probably too reliant on Ronnie to go all the way, but again, they can’t be ruled out.
HOLLAND made the Final last time, while losing plenty of friends with the borderline thuggery of their midfield enforcers Nigel de Jong and Marc van Bommel. Traditionally an aesthete’s delight, the Dutch have become more hard-nosed in recent years. The ship is steered by Louis van Gaal, who assumes charge of Manchester United as soon as this little affair is over with. They have the brilliant Arjen Robben, but Wesley Sneijder and Robin van Persie both have form and fitness question-marks hanging over them, and van Gaal seems to be leaning towards fielding a daring 3-4-3 formation, basically on the basis that he has very few good defenders at his disposal. It’s arguable that no Holland team should ever be priced at 33/1 for the World Cup, but it’s difficult to make a case for them winning it, and they may be hard-pressed to make it through a devilishly difficult group.
This leaves FRANCE, who have a none-too-scary first-round group to negotiate (Switzerland, Honduras, Ecuador) and have considerable talent in depth. Squad spirit is always an imponderable with this crew, but we can take it as read that they’ll be less shambolic and disorganised than the gang who dissolved into open mutiny in 2010. Keeper Hugo Lloris, centre-back Raphael Varane, midfielders Paul Pogba and Yohan Cabaye and frontman Karim Benzema render this a seriously strong unit who will take some beating. I’m leaving them alone this time, having backed them two years ago in Poland, but as with so many teams at this World Cup, they are potential winners if all the component parts click effectively.