The next Dáil could see an increase of up to 180 TDs

Plans to be rushed through the Oireachtas before the summer recess to see 18 to 20 additional TDs in the next Dáil have been revealed by the Irish Examiner.

Although the new statutory Electoral Commission has outlined a number between 171 and 181 TDs, sources from senior Government have indicated the number could actually be 178 or 180, up from the current number of 160.

This is due to the fact that the Commission will target the “upper limit” of what is allowed in order to ensure that the population is adequately represented. This is also in an effort to “future proof” the design of the new boundaries which are intended to last for 10 years if the Government runs for the full term.

The Commission, in a note to TDs and Senators, confirmed that each constituency will be asked to return three, four or five members- quashing suggestions of new mega six-seat constituencies.

The idea behind the increase is also to correct the consequences of reducing the number of TDs from 166 to 158 by the then Fine Gael-led Government under Enda Kenny, on the grounds of making austerity savings.

The adjustment will bring the numbers in line with the Constitutional requirements of representation, with Article 16.2.2 stating that the total number of those in the Dáil cannot be fixed at less than one member per 30,000 of the population or at more than one member per 20,000 of the population.

2022’s preliminary Census results has shown that the population has crept up over five million, with a 361,671 increase from 2016. With this, the number of people for each TD has risen to 32,022. A number of constituencies, especially those concentrated in the east of the country, are already over the 30,000 limit. Rathdown in Dublin for example, shows that the number of people per TD is near 34,000, just above 34,100 in Fingal and in North Kildare- 33,589.

While an increase in TDs is definitely on the cards, predictions that show by 2050, the number could be as high as 250 have been ruled out, suggesting a change in referendum in the near future to increase threshold limits.

Of the new seats proposed, as many as nine could be added to the greater Dublin area where population growth has seen significant growth.

Speaking to the Irish Examiner, Professor Gary Murphy of the School of Law and Government at Dublin City University has said “After the 1977 election the then newly formed constituency commission recommended a Dáil of 166 seats for the next general election up from 148 in 1977. This led to a situation where from 1981 to 2011 there was a Dáil of 166 TDs.”

“It was decided to implement a big leap to a size that wouldn't require constant amendment in subsequent years. This might explain the current Electoral Commission's tendency to the maximum in that going to the bare minimum of 171 might soon require a further increase,” he added.