HISTORY REPEATING

A century ago, Europe lurched into war. One outrage – the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife by a Serbian nationalist terrorist – was followed by a series of ham-fisted ultimatums and threats, each of which backed its maker further into a corner. Austria threatened Serbia and Russia retaliated. Allies on either side weighed in. Nobody knew how to derail the war train as it hurtled headlong over the cliff...

As we said here recently, much of the 20th century world derived from that war and its consequences. Had diplomacy stalled the war, Europe would not have seen millions die; Russia might not have gone through its Marxist-Leninist years; the Ottoman empire would not have been fragmented so unceremoniously – a process which gave us the horror-show that is now the Middle East; and the USA might not have had it so easy in dominating the 20th century.
It was thought at the time that the Great War would end all wars – that the carnage was so extensive that the people of the world would resolve never again to allow such a monstrosity to take shape. But quite the opposite has proven to be the case. Next up came World War II and the Holocaust.
Indeed, the 20th century was by far the most murderous in human history as a result of a succession of savage wars and campaigns. Some were between countries. Others were internal, like the civil wars in Ireland, Spain and on the Indian subcontinent. There were ethnic wars, for example in the Balkans and in Rwanda. There were terrible atrocities in Africa that defy categorisation.
Killing campaigns perpetrated by rulers on their own citizens were even more murderous. In Russia, millions died during collectivisation and from famines which arose directly from Government policies. In China, the Great Leap Forward ushered in one of the most deadly mass killings in human history. Remember Cambodia. Remember the Disappeared in South America.
You might think that all of this terror and turmoil might have some impact on patterns of international political and military behaviour. But the world still operates on the basis of spheres of influence and alliances – and States still defend indefensible acts by their allies, even when doing so is entirely contradictory of their position elsewhere.
The shooting down of Malaysian airliner MH17 over Ukraine was a war crime. There is little doubt that it was committed by separatists backed by Russia. The rest of the world, slowly, belatedly started to turn the screw, imposing sanctions on Russia for, amongst other things, supplying the terrorists...
Israel’s war on Gaza has been characterised by a succession of war crimes, each as reprehensible as shooting an airliner down. There has been much condemnation and handwringing. But there has been no serious political proposal for sanctions against the USA for arming the Israelis. Nor have there been fresh calls for sanctions against Iran for backing Hamas, an organisation that is also guilty of war crimes in the present conflict.
Perhaps something has been learned over the century, and States no longer feel obliged to rush over the cliff. But they use proxies. And sides are still taken despite those involved knowing the wrong option is being chosen. Look at the disastrous legacy of Tony Blair’s collusion with George W Bush’s war on Saddam Hussein.
And, of course, the powerful still dissemble and preach from both sides of their faces. The USA harangues Russia for its role in the Ukraine while simultaneously playing a very similar role vis-à-vis Israel and Gaza. Russia criticises Ukraine’s attempts to suppress separatism notwithstanding the brutality it showed in its suppression of Chechnya. Hypocrisy abounds.
Had WWI not happened or, indeed, had its victors been more magnanimous, we wouldn’t have seen the rise of Nazism and we wouldn’t have had WWII. Nor would we have seen the Holocaust, although that is not to say that old Europe’s ugly, corrosive anti-Semitism would have been alleviated. But Europe would still have been a very different place.
So too would the Middle East. In the aftermath of WWI the British came to rule over a significant swathe of the former Ottoman Empire and British Foreign Secretary Lord Balfour told Lord Rothschild that “His Majesty’s government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people.” That set the stage. But it was the rise of Nazi Germany and the Holocaust that gave the raging impetus for the declaration of an independent state of Israel in 1948.
An appalling history of oppression and genocide underpins the brutality and intransigence of Israel. One understands. But savagery, repression, mass killings of innocent women and children – none of these are acceptable, even in time of war. A loathsome racism underpins Israeli attitudes towards Palestinians and is manifest in the contemptuous dismissal of world condemnation of their actions. What’s wrong is wrong. Even if it’s your closest ally you have to go beyond loyalty to say and do what’s right. That’s America’s challenge with regard to Gaza.
But it’s everyone’s challenge too, if we are to build a world that fulfils the dream that we end all wars. Looking at the carnage all around us, even as we mark the centenary of WWI, you wouldn’t exactly be hopeful, would you?