A food crisis is looming

In recent weeks we have heard moving, even harrowing, accounts from people about how they can no longer afford to feed their families. Now, as the first brief cold snap hints at worse to come, their next problem will be staying warm. It’s tough out there. Everybody is squeezed but some are squeezed more.

And the thing is, in parallel with the austerity agenda but entirely separate from it, there’s another threat looming. Both energy and food are getting more expensive and the trend is not about to change.
We know what last summer was like in Ireland. As a result, crop yields were much reduced. Some more or less failed in many counties. The heavy rain and cold summer also affected grass growth with cattle in many areas being withdrawn to shed, milk yields down substantially and poor hay and silage to take them through this coming winter.
Believe me, this stuff matters. Yes, Ireland is a very open economy and we import a lot of food. But we export a lot of food too. So, meat and milk products will rise in price.
It’s not just Ireland. It’s everywhere. This year the US maize harvest was down 15%. Worse, and insanely, 40% of the remainder is used to make fuel. Wheat production worldwide is down 5% this year. Of all the world’s staples, only rice matched last year’s results.
The United Nations has warned that if the US harvest fails next year there will be a worldwide food crisis. If that happens there will be trouble in the streets… at the very least. Remember, it was a rise in the price of bread that triggered the so-called Arab spring uprising in Egypt and Libya.
Some ecologists believe that climate is now too unpredictable and prone to variation and food demands are accelerating too fast. It’s not sustainable. Something’s gotta give.
In his new publication Full Planet, Empty Plates, environmentalist Lester Brown predicts higher food prices, political instability and quite possibly a disastrous breakdown in world food supply.
You may not have noticed this – I haven’t – but global food prices have doubled over the last decade. For a start, there’s a lot more people in the world than there were. And more people around the world are eating meat, which demands more grain which makes the staples more expensive…
Throw in droughts in the USA, Ukraine, Australia and elsewhere and you can see the trouble we’re potentially in. The world is eating more than it produces. Global food stockpiles are at historically low levels. If the rice harvest next year is poor it’ll put the tin hat on it.
This isn’t some passing phase. Nope, in fact it’s early days in a lengthy spiral. Oxfam says food will double in price again over the next two decades, and that’s without factoring in some weather or disease catastrophe. Water supplies are another massive problem, now so depleted that there are likely to be water wars over the next decade.
Lester Brown says that this fearful prospect demands new policies on population, energy and water. In that case, many long-held beliefs and attachments may have to be jettisoned.
There’s no easy way out of it. Look at how hard it was to negotiate the Kyoto protocol. Look at how hard various religions campaigned against global population control policies. Look at the passionate opposition to GM crops…
But what if the alternative is catastrophe? Actually, that’s exactly what it is. And it’s all about us…
In our attachment to what is called the ‘natural order’, people largely forget that the dominance of the world by humans is itself singularly unnatural. Indeed, it’s so unnatural that scientists also predict one or more pandemics are brewing in the wings to cut the human population down to more sustainable numbers. A chilling thought…
James Lovelock is originator of the Gaia Hypothesis and a great figure in modern environmentalism. He now argues that nuclear power is necessary to meet the world’s energy demands and reduce carbon emissions. As long ago as 2004 he said we have no time to experiment with visionary energy sources; civilisation is in imminent danger and has to use nuclear – the one safe, available, energy source – now or suffer the pain soon to be inflicted by our outraged planet.
To some of his former associates this is heresy. But he’s adamant and he’s not alone. It may soon be time for similar heresies regarding GM foods, family size and water.
Interviewed recently in the Observer, Lester Brown said that “time is the scarcest resource”. The world’s leaders have been immersed in global financial meltdown. They haven’t seen that what’s coming on other fronts is likely to be many times worse. It’s past time to act.
Make no mistake, when catastrophe comes to pass we’ll all suffer. But the younger you are, the worse it will be. That’s because the effects of global climate change and food, water and energy shortages will gather increasing speed as we move towards the middle of this century.
It’s time to start ringing them bells…