The search for a new president: "External influences are much more likely to be malign than benign"

These are the Dog Days, the sultry weeks of later summer, often characterised by heat, sudden storms, lethargy, pointlessness and bad luck.

The name comes from Sirius, the Dog Star. But this time of year has also been dubbed the Silly Season, denoting weeks where politics is out of action and any oul’ shit can be fed into the news cycle.

We’re not sure which name better encapsulates the early muttering, posing and manoeuvring regarding our forthcoming Presidential election in November. Both, perhaps.

If we’re not careful, September will find us drowning in a slurry of distortions and delusions, fostered and inflamed by social media.

Trust us on this. This one won’t be like any other presidential contest. It mightn’t yet be obvious, but our election will be dragged far beyond its purpose, remit and reach.

We have our own fevers to fight, and that’ll be bad enough.

But, we’ll also be hit by a tsunami of interrogation, blather, roguery, misinformation and disinformation from what Jackie Healy-Rae used to call the wide earthly world.

HIDDEN CAMPAIGNING

It is, when you think about it, at least in part an unfortunate by-product of our quasi-canonisation, especially in the Anglosphere.

Ours is a small island with little military heft. What influence we wield globally is described as “soft power.” Our landscapes are Insta-perfect. And jaysus, we’re great writers and full of music, creativity and craic.

Lots of people think we’re grand. But there are plenty who don’t, and who’d like us taken down a few pegs, and to see our consensus-style politics shoved back in our faces.

So, there’ll be no end to the warp and weave as the campaigns unfold. The articles, “in-depth” reports, social media posts and likes and dislikes will be numbered in billions.

It’ll be interpreted – wrongly, of course – as a poll of polls, a bellwether event encompassing every conflict going.

Name an issue and it’ll be raised. Those in Ireland, and far beyond, with axes to grind and interests to advance won’t be shy. Contributions will be many, sometimes mischievous and often malicious.

External influences are much more likely to be malign than benign.

In particular, you can expect high-vis and hidden campaigning alike, by right wing influencers and evangelists in the United States; by the British far right, which is already active in Ireland; and by their ultra-nationalistic counterparts across Europe.

There is also likely to be covert activity by “unfriendly” states, Russia and Israel in particular.

There’s not a lot we can do to limit these torrents of shit or to keep a lid on the ugliness and malignancy involved.

In particular, there’s likely to be racism and anti-migrant agitation, which is already being orchestrated in the UK and, to an increasing extent, here.

Increased monitoring of cross-channel and cross-border traffic might be make a difference – but it’s a hell of a lot harder to tackle the bilge and bile of social media.

If these are of pandemic proportions we have to build our political and cultural immune system.

April 26th, 2025. Copyright Curtis DeSmith- hotpress.com

STRICT BOUNDARIES

Inevitably and rightly, given the horrors being perpetrated there, Palestine will be a dominant theme and candidates will be expected to be sound on the Gaza question.

Other issues likely to be front and centre include housing, employment policy, infrastructure and climate change.

We are sure to hear mention of “woke”, even though it’s not really a major thing, as such, in Ireland.

Yes, younger people may be more Anglocentric, given the UK and American focus and tone of their phone feeds, but overall the Irish don’t really subscribe to the reductive duality of “Progressive” v “Conservative”.

But it’s big in the two-party oppositional political cultures of the UK and the US, so they’ll be hunting for it here.

Indeed, we think the Anglosphere, including the USA, will go large on our presidential election, fishing to find a drift to the right or left, even though our electoral process is specifically and intelligently designed to deliver balanced, representative outcomes.

Likewise, they will misunderstand the constitutional role of the President and where this sits relative to the other key structures of the State, namely the Oireachtas, the Judiciary and the Civil Service.

As an aside, one of the most fascinating aspects of our system is the degree to which strict boundaries were put on their own powers by the Government of the day, when the Constitution was drafted in 1937. That the Government in power was led by Fianna Fáil, former revolutionaries who had lost out in a bitter civil war, makes it all the more remarkable.

But while ours is not an executive presidency, the election is still likely to be riven by debates about things that are the domain of the Government – for example housing, migration, climate change or infrastructure.

Inevitable? Perhaps. But we need to ensure, as far as possible, that the constitutional importance of the role of President – and the very real influence the President wields – are not obscured.

EMPATHY AND COMPASSION

Each of the last three Presidents has extended the role, but each has also been clearly conscious of the boundaries and responsibilities.

In reaching decisions on who to vote for in November, we need to consider what the President does, and can do, and – as far as possible – shut out the noise and hullabaloo and celebrity nonsense.

The President is supposed to be above the rí rá and ruaille buaille of partisan politics.

The role is unifying and integrating. Its holder is meant to be broadly representative of the people, not ideologically partisan or politically bound.

A history of action is no impediment, but strident crusaders have to be able to leave their swords and shields behind. Or not join the race.

We also need to think of the qualities we want to find in the President.

Like, it’s not about fancying yourself and your partner welcoming guests to the Áras. Nor is it about biggin’ yourself up better than the other candidates. Or having the best teeth.

Notwithstanding the wide range of media devoted to nothing but the superficial, nor the overpowering ubiquity of the selfie, or “wellness”, self-absorption and narcissism, the Presidency isn’t a glamour assignment.

As President Michael D. Higgins has demonstrated better than anyone in the past, approached in the right spirit, it is extremely hard work.

So, up here on Hog Hill we’ll be looking for qualities like integrity and common sense, wisdom and knowledge, depth and thoughtfulness, empathy and compassion, the ability to think deeply and wisely and say the right thing at the right time, and to draw the many strands of our society together.

Of course, a sense of rhythm would be good. And a wicked sense of humour would be pretty cool too!

We start winnowing the wheat from the chaff in less than two months. So it’s time to start thinking.

As the saying goes, if we fail to prepare, we prepare to fail.