- 09 Jul 21
No candidate has yet been deemed officially elected after four counts.
Labour Party candidate Ivana Bacik is currently in the lead for the Dublin Bay South by-election, but no candidate has yet been deemed elected after four counts.
Ivana Bacik has held the lead throughout the day since the count started this morning. A full tally of all boxes indicated she will likely hold 30% of the vote, ahead of Fine Gael's James Geoghegan on 26%, with Lynn Boylan of Sinn Féin on nearly 16%.
The tallies also suggested that Claire Byrne of the Green Party was on just under 8%, with Fianna Fáil's Deirdre Conroy under 5% and Independent Mannix Flynn on 3%, though these are not official counts and may change as the evening progresses.
At present after the fourth count, Ms Bacik is on 8,188 while James Geoghegan has 7,134, Lynn Boylan is on 4,357, Claire Byrne has 2,197, and Deirdre Conroy is on 1,278.
People Before Profit/Solidarity candidate Brigid Purcell, Independent candidates Dolores Cahill, Peter Dooley, John Keigher and Colm O'Keefe, the National Party's Justin Barrett and Renua's Jacqui Gilbourne have all been so far eliminated and their votes redistributed.
With a total poll of 27,044 in the electorate of 77,924 in Dublin Bay South, the turnout at yesterday's polls was just under 35%.
The total valid poll is 26,882, meaning the quota to be deemed elected is 13,442, which no candidate has reached so far.
The votes of Brigid Purcell (PBP/SOL) will now be redistributed.
— Ireland Elects (@ToghannEire) July 9, 2021
Counting in the RDS began at 9am this morning.
The vote was held to fill the Dáil seat vacated by former Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy, with a total of 15 candidates putting themselves forward for election.
Earlier, Labour's Director of Elections Duncan Smith said there had been momentum behind Ms Bacik all the way and this had increased in the past week since an Irish Times opinion poll.
Early tallies had suggested a strong showing for Sinn Féin's Lynn Boylan in the mainly working-class areas of the constituency, but this support did not hold up in more middle-class areas.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has conceded that her party will not win the Dublin Bay South by-election.
Ms Bacik had expected to rely on transfers to overtake Mr Geoghegan on later counts, but in fact pulled well ahead in the first count.
Labour Party leader Alan Kelly said that he is "immensely proud" after a "fantastic, positive campaign".
The count will continue into the evening, however it is expected that Ms Bacik will be elected, bringing Labour's total amount of TDs in this Dail to seven.