Can you beat the excitement of the Champions League knockout stages? As ever, the quarter-finals have thrown up some mouthwatering ties, with this week’s headline fixtures tonight’s being tonight’s encounter between Man City and Bayern Munich, and tomorrow’s showdown between Chelsea and Real Madrid.

Does any team have a cosier life than Man City? For a start, there’s their not-insignificant spending power – the contentious nature of which ultimately saw them charged with breaking the Premier League’s financial fair play rules earlier this year, which City of course are fighting to the hilt – and the glorified exhibition games their domestic ties routinely descend into. The Champions League, of course, has been a different story, and personally, I’ve never once believed they’ve been good enough to land the club game’s ultimate prize throughout Pep Guardiola’s tenure.

But here again, City enjoy an easier ride than you might imagine. There remains a significant cohort of football observers who maintain that, in fact, City have been the best side in Europe for the past six years, and that their failure to win the Champions League is due to an unfathomable mix of bad luck and some kind of flaw in the competition itself. What a nice position for City to find themselves in: they’re free to come up short every year, in the knowledge people will still advocate for them as the true champions of Europe!

Remarkably, despite their serial failure, City have been installed as Champions League favourites once more this spring. it’s easy to imagine Guardiola as Phil Connors in Groundhog Day, getting an uneasy feeling as he wakes yet again to ‘I’ve Got You Babe’ on the radio, and the announcer mentioning a do-or-die Champions League clash for Man City that evening. You can also picture a dazed Guardiola walking with his coffee towards the Etihad, before being accosted by a perky stranger he ultimately punches – only instead of Ned Ryerson, it’s Carlo Ancelotti (“Pep! Don’t tell me you don’t remember me, cos I sure as heckfire remember you!”)

 

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A post shared by Pep Guardiola (@mrpepguardiola)

Anyway, while it might be comforting for City to believe their cheerleaders, it will do them no favours. Indeed, close examination of their near-misses over the past number of years reveal the same recurring flaws, with last season’s spectacular collapse against Real Madrid – when they had the tie more or less sewn up – a greatest hits set of the team’s shortcomings. Having weathered the psychic shock of Real’s late, late show in the Bernabeu, when Rodrygo’s two late goals sent the game to extra time, it is often forgotten that City still had plenty of time to regroup and win the match.

But the suspicion that they have a soft underbelly was confirmed in extra time, when not only were City defeated, they were completely steamrolled by Real in what was a virtual collapse. It is an uncomfortable truth that the pressure to win the Champions League is increasing on City by the season – and it’s not a pressure they deal with especially well. Neither is their predicament helped by Guardiola’s world class overthinking of each tie.

Never less than a fussy perfectionist during his time at Barcelona, Pep’s tendency towards micro-analysis has lurched into a kind of neurosis at City. Seemingly unable to trust his gut instinct, the manager has indulged in endless tactical tinkering: positional switches, changed formations, dropped players – nothing has been off the table as Guardiola looks to second-guess every possible outcome.

It has cost City dearly in the past and is likely to do so again.

Weighed against all this is the rather straightforward matter of the team’s undoubted quality and incredible strength-in-depth. At their best, City play a slick – if somewhat sterile – passing game that continually carves open the opposition. With Kevin De Bruyne pulling the strings in midfield, the likes of Riyadh Mahrez, Bernardo Silva and Jack Grealish all excel at finding openings in massed defences. They also routinely serve up chances for a grateful Erling Haaland, who unsurprisingly has maintained his phenomenal early career stats at City, where he continues to average more than a goal a game.

💫 B. Munich 0-1 Man City

🇳🇴 Debut goal for the sensational Erling Haaland the last time City faced Bayern

(Club Friendly, Lambeau Field, US)#ManCity #Haaland #UCL pic.twitter.com/A47PpTmtoJ

— Gabriel (@Doozy_45) April 10, 2023

Even allowing for his lethal finishing, it’s not easy to explain Haaland’s freakish scoring rate. The possibility that he comes from outer space increasingly has to be given credence – after all, the Pentagon have recently conceded that some UFOs are more inexplicable than others. Maybe ET accidentally left one of his cousins stranded in Norway when he crashed landed? Haaland phone home! (God knows he can afford the intergalactic phone bill thanks to his City wages).

It’s true that City often look irresistible in the Premier League, most recently over the weekend when dismantling a hapless Southampton. But it tends to be a different story when they encounter a team who can’t be depended upon to dutifully slump at their feet, which will definitely be the case against Bayern Munich, one of the blue chip teams in European football. It’s a clash of styles in more ways than one: a fan-owned outfit who largely eschew big-money transfers, Bayern instead utilise an admirable system largely based around homegrown talent, supplemented by the occasional star name and some very judicious loan signings.

Even allowing for the comical ease with which they brushed aside PSG’s galacticos in the last 16, by their own standards, the Germans have been in sluggish form. Not that there’s been any need for alarm – or at least there didn’t appear be, until recently. In the social media age, the fact is that Europe’s major clubs operate on a hair-trigger basis when it comes to crisis: despite currently competing for their 11th – yes, 11th – consecutive Bundesliga title, a period adrift in second place was enough for Bayern to hit the panic button, resulting in the sacking of manager Julian Nagelsmann.

Julian Nagelsmann. Credit: Getty.

The absurdity of the situation was underlined by Nagelsmann retaining his status as one of the most in-demand managers in world football. His replacement, meanwhile, was Thomas Tuchel – who has rebounded into one of the most agreeable jobs imaginable after himself getting sacked (naturally) by Chelsea. In any event, if they get over Man City, as I expect them to, I actually fancy Bayern to go and win the Champions League this year.

The spine of their team is formidable. Looking more comfortable than he ever did in a Juventus shirt, Matthijs de Ligt has forged a solid defensive partnership with Dayot Upemecano. In front of them are the excellent midfield duo of the battling Leon Goretzka and the scheming Joshua Kimmich, while in attack, wingers Kingsley Coman and Jamal Musiala have the guile to open up an always suspect City defence. They’ll be supplying the bullets for strikers Eric Choupo-Moting and the evergreen Thomas Muller, who offer a serious goal threat. Elsewhere, although his contribution this season has been limited, expect the brilliant Sadio Mane to prove an absolute handful too if he’s introduced against City.

A canny tactician who specialises in besting Guardiola (easier said than done), Tuchel will also be aware that, for all the endless hype about Grealish, Phil Foden et al, beating City is largely contingent on containing two players: De Bruyne and Haaland represent City’s inner confidence, and they need to be removed. You can be sure that in addition to the tactical details, both will be singled out for “treatment” – albeit the man (alien?) marking of Haaland might require fresh personnel, like perhaps the Predator from the movie franchise.

Though they may even trail heading back to Munich for the second leg, my money is on Bayern to eventually prevail. Let the action begin…