For many years, predicting the outcome of an Irish election was fairly simple. We had a “two and a half” party system: Fianna Fáil went up against a Fine Gael-Labour combination, with the Soldiers of Destiny usually edging it. Or if they didn't, there was always the possibility of hooking up with Labour.
Maybe it’s a by-product of the Celtic Tiger, with its countless varieties of coffee and what-not, but in recent times we’ve seen the political menu expand dramatically. Which makes it all the harder to predict what combination of parties will be in office once the dust has settled after polling.
The current Fianna Fáil–PD coalition is hoping to be re-elected. That seems unlikely to happen, judging by the opinion polls. But the same polls indicate that the “alternative government” proposed by Fine Gael and Labour won’t be strong enough to take over the government Mercs.
That brings the Green Party, Sinn Féin, and perhaps some of the independent TDs into the mix. The Greens say they’d prefer to link up with FG and Labour, but Fianna Fáil has been making eyes at them lately. Sinn Féin are still beyond the pale, say the other parties – but you never know what might happen if the numbers are right.
THE PARTIES
Anyway, before our heads start spinning in anticipation of the post-election merry-go-round, let’s remind ourselves who the main players are. Ireland’s biggest parties, of course, are Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. While the two parties have a long and bitter rivalry, going back many generations, you might find it hard explaining to a foreigner what their differences actually are.
It goes back to the Civil War. If you weren’t paying attention in history class, Ken Loach and Neil Jordan have both made films about it. But as far as today’s debates are concerned, there’s not much between the two parties. They both like to think of themselves as pragmatic, and tend to favour right-of-centre economic policies.
We can be sure that one of these two parties will be leading a government after the election. According to Progressive Democrat chief Michael McDowell, what really matters is who their junior partners are. Or as he put it: “It’s not the more bulky bread which gives a sandwich its taste. Rather, it’s the meat which gives a sandwich its flavour.”
So depending on your tastes, you could opt for the right-wing PDs, who like nothing better than a good privatisation, or the left-of-centre Greens and Labour. Although Sinn Féin have now formed a cabinet with Ian Paisley north of the border, the chances are they won’t be adding their spice to the government sandwich, but they should do well. Their critics often refer to SF as a “Marxist” party, which is a bit of an exaggeration. But further to the left, you’ve got the Socialist Party, best known for the one-liners of their sole TD Joe Higgins. Not to mention a load of independents, whose views range from hard right to hard left.
THE ISSUES

Naturally, all the parties in this election would have you believe that they are the only ones who can be trusted with Ireland’s economy – if the other lot get their grubby hands on power, the country will go down the pan. But there’s a broad consensus about economic policy: most parties want to keep tax rates (especially corporation tax) at the same level. Sinn Féin argue that corporation tax should be raised to 17.5%.
The crisis in the health service has been a massive issue over the last couple of years. The PDs have argued for greater involvement by private business in health care. Labour have pledged to stop the construction of private hospitals on public land (one of Mary Harney’s innovations as Minister for Health). Sinn Féin wants to end the public-private mix in the health service and replace it with a free public system funded by taxation.
As you’d expect, the Greens are calling for greater investment in renewable energy (one of their election posters shows the main power station in Dublin with wind turbines on the top). But, sadly, the main issue being discussed at the moment is stamp duty: Fine Gael and Labour have pledged to abolish the charge on first-time home buyers, as have the PDs.