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This is an election year – and the fun and games have started already. One of the most amusing over the past week has been the attempt to corner the Labour leader Pat Rabbitte in relation to what his party will do if the mathematics of the new Dáil do not allow the proposed Rainbow Coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens to form a government.

What if the Fianna Fail/PD coalition doesn’t have enough seats to form a government either, even with a smattering of sympathetic independents as back-up? Will Labour then go into government with Fianna Fáil and form what would, on the face of it, potentially be the most stable and attractive government on offer?
It is, of course, a fair question. But it is equally fair for Labour to say that they simply don’t know. For a start, there are so many twists and turns possible, depending on the precise representation of the parties once the 30th Dáil has been elected: are you expected to have an answer that covers every one of them? But here’s another even better reason: it is inconceivable that a Fianna Fail/Labour coalition could be the only option, in terms of forming a government after the next election. Why? Well, there is little or no doubt that the strongest combination of parties, by some distance, after the next election will be Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Even an exceptionally good performance by Labour will leave them below Fine Gael in terms of numbers. So what if, (a) in the best imaginable scenario for Labour, they were to add seven seats to their current figure of 21, giving them 28 TDs; and (b) Fine Gael were to perform disappointingly and take just 33? Forget the rest of the permutations. The important question here is this: is not the most compelling logic here that the two conservative parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, should then join forces to form a government?
The cliché is often trotted out after an election that the people have spoken, and that the political parties have to take what the electorate have decided on board and act accordingly. But this is never honestly said in the Irish context. Because if it was, and if politicians did act on that basis, then we’d have had an FF/FG coalition long ago.
No, this is a stick characteristically used both by the media and by Fianna Fáil to bully and browbeat Labour into doing one thing or another. Well, let’s see the same logic being applied to Fine Gael. That same question must now be asked of Enda Kenny. If the Rainbow Coalition fails in its bid to unseat Fianna Fáil, will he consider going into Government with FF? Will he accept the word of the people, after they have spoken, if indeed it pans out that way?
Labour may well be faced with a horrible dilemma. If the numbers add up to a hung Dail that can only be securely turned into a Government by the combination of Fianna Fáil with either Labour or Fine Gael, should Rabbitte play a waiting game, try to force the two major conservative parties to unite in Government, and sit back and watch while their support inevitably erodes? In terms of its potential for a re-alignment in Irish politics, that would certainly be the more promising strategic stance. But, on the other hand, could Labour possibly contemplate leaving the country in the hands of what would undoubtedly be Ireland’s most conservative ever government, for a period of almost five years? Should we have to suffer that? Should Pat Rabbitte or anyone else inflict it on us, if Labour has the power to intervene successfully?
Of course the chances of this coming to pass are slim. But it would be a far more interesting and challenging outcome than anything else on offer.

So what will be the big issues in 2007 for first-time voters? What do HotPress readers in general want from political parties on the run in to polling day? Over the coming months, we will focus on those issues that are of most concern to younger voters. But however informed HotPress readers might be, it won’t make a blind bit of difference if they’re not registered to vote. That is if you’re not registered to vote…
Already there has been considerable controversy about the fact that a huge number of people have potentially been disenfranchised by the Government parties and the various councils around the country. The Sunday Tribune estimated that up to 100,000 voters were at risk. Was it done deliberately? Knowing the way politics in Ireland operates, you tend to smell a rat. The next election is likely to be a difficult one for Fianna Fáil in particular. The PDs may suffer as well. But if a large chunk of potential anti-Coalition voters were to be placed outside the pale, might the result be tilted helpfully in the direction of a FF/PD victory?
In truth that may be far too paranoid a view. But no matter. The fact is that any citizen over the age of 18 is still entitled to register to vote in the upcoming election – so there is no excuse for missing out. The rules are simple, even if the shenanigins to date have not been. The website Citizensinformation.ie explains it thus:
“If your name is not on the Register of Electors when it comes into effect in February, you may still make a ‘late’ application to be included in a supplement to the Register. You can make this application at any time, but in order to be included in the supplement used at an election, your application must be received, by your local authority, at least 15 working days before polling day.”
So let’s be clear about this. No one reading this, who is over 18 and an Irish citizen, need miss out when it comes to Election 2007. Check out the electoral register when it is published in February. If your name is not on it, in a place where you will be able to vote, then MAKE SURE TO REGISTER at the address where you spend most of your time. If you are a student from the country with an address in Dublin, register where it will be easiest for you to vote. Don’t give up your democratic right just because getting down to Kerry would be too much of a hassle.
We’ll come back to this, and to the themes that will be important to HotPress readers – including, for example, the position of the different political parties on the issue of ticket touting – over the next few issues. In the meantime, get ready to use your vote, whether it’s for the first time or not…