Russian Roulette

The early skirmishes are over – the serious business of conquering Europe starts here. And as a famous German statesman of the mid-20th century knew all too well, subjugating Russia is the perfect way to go about it. (He also found Slovakia one of his easier assignments, though the sinister Russkies eventually proved a much tougher obstacle and fought back with a strong second-half performance).

All non-PC frivolity aside, these two encounters are of absolutely colossal importance to Ireland’s Euro ambitions. Win both games, and we’re well on the way. Lose them both, and basically we’re fucked. The likelihood is that we won’t reach a definitive conclusion this week, and the Group will still be very much in the balance going into next spring.
There doesn’t seem to be a great deal to separate Ireland, Russia and Slovakia in terms of overall strength, and given the profoundly conservative set-up of the Irish team, Foul Play’s suspicion is that the likeliest outcome is two draws, which wouldn’t be a disaster by any means.
If we can break even against the Group heavyweights, and clean up maximum points against everyone else (a streak of ugly 1-0 wins will do just fine) it may just about be enough to claim top spot.
The Armenia and Andorra encounters told us nothing we didn’t already know: Trap’s Ireland are not easy on the eye, they work like dogs, are admirably well-organised, alarmingly short of attacking inspiration, and quite difficult to break down (Andorra’s goal at the Aviva was worrying, but had an element of freakishness about it). The picture is not entirely rosy: there are justified concerns over the lack of first-team football that is afflicting a number of our key operators.
Specifically, Shay Given and Robbie Keane have been consigned to sit on the subs’ bench for virtually the entire season thus far, Glenn Whelan is frequently deemed not quite good enough to make Stoke’s starting line-up, Liam Lawrence is stuck at car-crash club Portsmouth, Paul Green isn’t setting the universe alight at Derby County, and news has just reached my ears that Damien Duff is out.
We need not have any worries about Shay – however rusty he might be, he’s never let Ireland down and isn’t about to start now. He remains the team’s most important player by a country mile, and we are absolutely blessed to have a goalkeeper of such virtuosity. But events at the other end of the pitch are considerably more worrying.
Robbie’s confidence seems absolutely shot: he squandered a couple of very inviting chances against Armenia, would surely have left Spurs on transfer deadline day if Harry Redknapp had been able to find any takers, and generally looks deeply out of sorts.
On the other hand, Aiden McGeady appears to have adjusted quite well to life with Spartak Moscow, whose clinical demolition of Zilina I had the pleasure of watching last week in one of those early-evening Champions League appetisers. He looks revitalised, having fallen into something of a rut at Celtic where he hadn’t progressed significantly in the last two or three years, and may well be worth unleashing against our Slavic foes.
While both Russia and Slovakia demand respect, there is nothing to suggest that either team is unbeatable. The Russians don’t travel particularly well, were outwitted by a fairly limited Slovenia over two legs in the last World Cup qualifying play-off, can look every bit as ponderous in possession as our good selves, and may be there for the taking.
They are managed by the hard-to-like Dutchman Dick Advocaat, who refused to sign black players during his stint in charge of Zenit St Petersburg in case it upset their notoriously ultra-right-wing fans. He also has previous at another club who carry plenty of obnoxious political baggage with them from the not-too-distant past, Glasgow Rangers FC.
Dick’s only previous away fixture against an Irish team was an experience he’s unlikely to forget in a hurry, when he brought his expensively-assembled multi-national Gers crew to face the might of Shelbourne in a UEFA Cup tie back in 1998. The fixture was switched to Merseyside to stave off the threat of loyalist detritus laying Dublin’s city centre to waste; and given the vast disparity in playing ability between Shels and Gers (at that time one of Europe’s biggest-spending clubs) the contest was assumed to be a formality.
It was one of the most enjoyable games I have ever seen. After an hour, the scoreline read Shelbourne 3 Rangers 0, as a stupefied Dick looked on in disbelief. In an unfortunate postscript, Rangers woke up, banged in five goals without reply, and won 5-3. But we’ll happily forget that bit. Shels had won, in a manner of speaking, and their heroics should serve as a template to Trap’s troops as we prepare to wrestle with Mother Russia. This time out, a 3-0 lead would be gratefully received, and it would be great if we didn’t hand them five goals in the final half-hour.
I am up for this one, and I trust the lads are too. The explosive Roman Pavyluchenko will require close attention, while the somewhat work-shy Andrei Arshavin is capable of causing us enormous grief if we catch him on one of his better days. But, overall, I think we’re hardly out of our depth. Our increasingly chronic bluntness in attack leads me to suspect that we may fire a blank, so I’m cautiously predicting a 0-0 draw, which would leave us in the position of heading to Slovakia realistically requiring at least a point to avoid sustaining serious damage.
While we’re technically top of the table, Slovakia have effectively claimed pole position with their victory in Russia, which (allied to their 3-2 vanquishing of Italy in one of the best games of this summer’s World Cup) suggests that they’re the real danger in Group B.
On our only previous visit three years ago, under what might politely be described as Steve Staunton’s...er...leadership, we were within seconds of winning 2-1 before giving away our customary last-minute goal, on a thoroughly soul-destroying weekend which also witnessed Stephen Ireland’s one-man mutiny. The result essentially knocked us out of serious contention for Euro 2008, but the point is that Slovakia were there for the taking.
In the intervening three years, both sides have improved vastly. They’re a tricky crew, certainly capable of making us look stupid if we don’t keep our wits about us. But apart from applying the killer blow to the fading Italians, they weren’t all that impressive at the World Cup: they looked sub-mediocre against Paraguay and New Zealand, and didn’t cause the Dutch undue trouble.
There is also compelling evidence from Trap’s tenure thus far that we’re actually a more formidable proposition away from home, as evidenced by our displays in Bari, Sofia and Paris. If we can play with anything approaching the virtuosity we displayed in the Stade de France, we might just manage to pull off a major coup.
As mentioned, the group is so finely balanced that two or three points would be a perfectly acceptable return. But we could speculate all day. Bring it on. The war is there to be won.