Far Eastern promise

GROUP A

I’d have no hesitation in putting my shirt on France to win the tournament again if they didn’t have Frank Leboeuf playing at the back. The pedestrian bald whinger, who isn’t good enough for this level in any case, has had a disastrous season at Marseille. He wouldn’t be in the team if he wasn’t mates with the rest of the old guard (see also Christophe Dugarry, unbelievably still getting called up).

France will walk through this group, though, with Trezeguet as a lone striker supported by two wingers (Henry and Wiltord) and Zidane as the tune-caller. They’ll make the last four, with England and Brazil probable opponents along the way, but thereafter the Leboeuf Factor will come into play. You wouldn’t mind, but all they have to do is move Lilian Thuram into the centre and pick Vincent Candela at right-back. But hey, what do I know?

The decisive game for second place will be Denmark-Uruguay, which should come down to whether Uruguay’s quick forwards (Recoba, Silva, Magallanes) can find a way through Denmark’s durable rearguard (Henriksen, Helveg, Laursen, Heintze). I fancy the Danes, much improved from their dire Euro 2000 showing, to do just enough.

21 of Senegal’s 23 play in France, so they’re guaranteed to give it the full nine yards against their old colonial masters in the opening match, but will probably fade out of contention thereafter. They aren’t a bad team, but don’t really have enough quality to live with Denmark or Uruguay.

Prediction: 1 France, 2 Denmark

GROUP B

Forecasting that Spain will win the World Cup is like tipping Scorsese for an Oscar. It just ain’t gonna happen, now or ever. Their lack of truly world-class forwards will let them down again: Raul has choked at two major tournaments in a row (appalling finishing at France 98, a crucial missed penalty at Euro 2000), and a needless red card will complete the set nicely this time. Spain will be as watchable as anybody, though. In midfield alone, Jose Camacho can choose from Xavi, Mendieta, Luis Enrique, Valeron, Ivan Helguera and the Valencia pair of Baraja and Albelda. Expect a haul of at least seven points and a possible last-16 clash with Ireland.

Slovenia gave the Spanish a hard time in Amsterdam two years ago before eventually losing 2-1, and they could well do better on this occasion. Excepting anoraks like myself, nobody can name a single member of their team apart from Zlatko Zahovic, but you wouldn’t bet against them turning up in the second round. Kaiserslautern’s Aleksander Knavs, the best defender in the Bundesliga, is worth keeping an eye on.

Paraguay were perhaps the strongest team in South America two years ago, but have regressed badly since. Newly-installed manager Cesare Maldini is reportedly unpopular with the senior players, and they looked a jaded lot against England recently. They do have a decent forward this time – Bayern Munich’s Roque Santa Cruz – but they’ll need more than that against a Spanish team desperate for revenge after the debacle of Saint-Etienne four years ago. Goalkeeper Chilavert is suspended for the first game, too.

South Africa can probably forget thoughts of the last 16. Bafana Bafana looked unimaginative and goal-shy at the African Nations Cup, and, faced with three defensively strong opponents, there’s little reason to suppose they’ll be any different at the World Cup. They’ll be home before the postcards are.

Prediction: 1 Spain, 2 Slovenia

GROUP C

Is this the worst Brazil side ever? Most people seem to think so, and that’s a sentiment backed up by the news that, for the first time in a World Cup, they’ll have three at the back, with Cafu and Roberto Carlos as wing-backs. One suspects that this team will be rather more effective in the opposition’s half than in its own. No change there, then.

On the bright side, the brilliant playmaker Ronaldinho (literally “little Ronaldo”) should be one of the tournament’s stars, supplying the bullets for the front two, Rivaldo and Ronaldo. But the mouthwatering clash with the Turks is of huge importance. Even if Brazil win the group, the French await them in the quarter-finals – and that should be that.

If you’re looking for surprise packets, you could do worse than Turkey. They’re a well-drilled side full of very good players like Hakan, Emre, Okan, Aston Villa stopper Alpay and the gifted Yildiray Basturk. Though not the greatest at the back (they let in three to Macedonia in qualifying), don’t be surprised if they come away from the Brazil match with a point – or better.

The Brazil-Turkey battle for top spot could well come down to how many goals they each put past China. Bora Milutinovic’s record of taking every World Cup side he’s managed into at least the last 16 will end this time. The Chinese had the easiest ride of any team to these finals – their main opposition was Oman, for Christ’s sake! – and when your star player is a guy who couldn’t hold down a place at Dundee (Fan Zhiyi), you can’t really expect to compete with the big boys.

I’d give Costa Rica a better chance of the last 16 if they weren’t in such a lopsided group. They won’t get thrashed, but two honourable defeats and an easy win over the Chinese looks the likeliest bet.

Prediction: 1 Brazil, 2 Turkey

GROUP D

It would be expecting too much of South Korea to win this group, and thereby avoid Italy in round two, but this tournament should at least see them break their 14-match duck of never having won a game in the World Cup finals. When the action finally starts, when they’re lining up and the national anthem is playing and they have a whole stadium full of fans roaring them on, can you see them failing to get past the USA and Poland? No, me neither.

Their best-known face is Anderlecht winger Seol Ki-hyeon, chiefly because he’s been one of the stars of Nike’s recent lurid poster campaign, but their finest player is sweeper Hong Myung-bo, a star of USA 94 and now back for his fourth World Cup.

Poland will do well to hold them in the first game in Busan, a match which should see Jerzy Dudek with warm palms at the final whistle. With most of their men stacked behind the ball, and an unappealing tendency to dive, they won’t pick up the neutral vote. Emmanuel Olisadebe, their Nigerian striker (don’t ask), will plough a rather lonely furrow up front.

The USA looked half decent in monsoon conditions at Lansdowne last month, but they find it hard to score goals in appreciable numbers, and have suffered the grievous blow of losing their midfield destroyer, Chris Armas, to injury. As in France 98, fourth place looks a distinct possibility. Hopefully they’ll score more than once this time.

The best incentive for Portugal to start brightly is that if they qualify in second place, Italy will probably await them on June 17. So expect them to mow down the Americans in a flurry of goals, some of which should come from the brilliant Nuno Gomes.

The Portuguese need Luis Figo to come good quickly: he’s had an indifferent season at Real Madrid and they depend on him nearly as much as we do on Roy Keane. But most of the superb Euro 2000 side is still in place, and if they do win the group as expected, probably Ecuador and then Spain stand between them and a semi-final berth. And they can beat both.

Prediction: 1 Portugal, 2 South Korea

GROUP E

As I write, Germany have just lost to Wales, which rather says it all. They won‚t be as bad at these finals as they were against England in September, but then, that‚s not really saying a great deal.

As if having their poorest squad in decades wasn‚t enough of a handicap, they‚ve lost two of their best players, Jens Nowotny and Mehmet Scholl, to injury. Michael Ballack looks a cracking player but he can‚t do it all on his own, and unless Oliver Kahn is on top form in goal, things could get seriously embarrassing.

Despite the Roy Keane fiasco (about which I will say no more, except that on all available evidence Mick McCarthy did the right thing), I still - perhaps misguidedly - believe that Ireland can achieve qualification from this group. If you believe the doom-mongers, our hopes of making the last 16 now lie somewhere between Queer Street and Shit Creek, but upon reflection it doesn't look that bad.

At the very least, however, we do possess a great goalkeeper, a striker in the form of his life, and a very skilled right-back, as well as four or five more players who won't look out of place in the same company. That alone puts us ahead of Saudi Arabia, who contributed nothing to the tournament last time and don't look any better this year, and it gives us a decent shout for second place.

Even without Keane, this team is undoubtedly a much more satisfying outfit than the Italia 90 side, and McCarthy has every right to feel that his side can make round two.

Still, I have a sneaking feeling in my water about Cameroon. Song, Mboma, Eto'o and friends looked like a very, very good team at the African Nations Cup, though some of the opposition wasn't up to much. And, like the rest of you, I've been having visions of some 6'6" centre-back kicking Damien Duff over the advertising hoardings in the first minute.

Prediction: 1 Cameroon, 2 Ireland

GROUP F

Argentina have been billed as favourites, usually by people who haven’t watched them play since the quarter-final against Holland in France 98. They are a serious team, all right, but the slowness of their central defence (Ayala and Samuel) may end up costing them dear.

Still, just have a look at some of the players they’ve left behind (Saviola, Cruz, Riquelme) and then the ones they’ve taken – Zanetti, Veron, Ortega, Lopez, Kily Gonzalez, Aimar, Gallardo. No team will have a better attack in the Far East, France and Brazil included. Their opening game against Nigeria should be one of the matches of the finals.

The most striking thing about Nigeria, aside from their disgusting lime green shirts, is the shambolic nature of their participations. They named a 54-man squad two months before the finals, then dropped some of their best players, recalled some of them, discarded a few more, and in the middle of all that, beat Scotland 2-1 in a friendly. It’s impossible to predict how they’ll play, or even their formation, but unless they catch Sweden or England on an off day, they have to be considered the weakest side in this very strong group.

I wanted to say pleasant things about England, I really did, if for no other reason than Sven seems like an extraordinarily nice man who appears to know what he’s doing. The latest medical bulletins, however, seem to have destroyed all hope of a place in round two. Losing any one of Gary Neville, Gerrard and (probably) Dyer would be bad enough; losing all three is just too much for any side to bear. The replacements just aren’t up to the job.

Moreover, with Beckham only just off crutches, the entire right side of their team is dangerously unbalanced: there’s no such thing as match sharpness for someone who hasn’t played competitive football in about seven weeks. You’d almost feel sorry for them. Almost…

The main beneficiaries should be Sweden, who haven’t lost to England in decades and look unlikely to now. The Ljungberg-Larsson axis will give England some uncomfortable moments, while Celtic’s Johan Mjallby has matured into a world-class stopper. Look out, too, for the left-sided Erik Edman, who will enjoy torturing the wretched Danny Mills.

Prediction: 1 Argentina, 2 Sweden

GROUP G

My tip to win the 2002 World Cup is Italy, if for no other reason than that they’re an excellent side and enter the finals under no real pressure. Their midfield (Zambrotta, Di Biagio, Zanetti, Coco) is awesomely destructive, and what little gets through will be mopped up by a back three of Nesta, Cannavaro and Maldini. Then take into account the Totti-Del Piero-Vieri axis up front, and you’ll see why I fancy them.

Ecuador will surprise a lot of people. They finished third in the South American section, well ahead of Brazil, and their very obscurity will act as an element of surprise. The main striker, Alex Aguinaga, may burst onto the scene this summer the way that Mexico’s Luis Hernandez did four years ago. Look out, too, for Ulises De La Cruz of Hibs.

Croatia would normally be the obvious candidates to follow Italy out of the group, but they recently lost their best defender, Igor Tudor, to injury. Moreover, aside from Alen Boksic (who’s had an indifferent year at Boro), they haven’t any really dangerous forwards. They and Ecuador look very well matched, but they just don’t strike me as having enough artistry about them to prevail.

I know absolutely nothing about Mexico, except that they don’t have that Carmen Miranda lookalike in goal any more.

Prediction: 1 Italy, 2 Ecuador

GROUP H

Take Japan to top Group H, for the same reasons as South Korea. Plus, they’re a much better side than their co-hosts, and their group is easier. However, don’t expect miracles from their one recognisable name, Hidetoshi Nakata. He’s had a shocking season at Parma and may not even make the starting XI. The hometown factor can’t be overestimated, however, and should Japan win the group, they can certainly see off Turkey in the next round.

If anyone gives Japan problems, it’s unlikely to be Belgium. A negative and unimaginative side, they were already unappealing enough before losing their best forward, Emile Mpenza, to a thigh injury. The average age of their squad is stratospheric, as usual, and even their best players – right-back Eric Deflandre and attacker Wesley Sonck – won’t be able to save them.

If this group was being played on neutral ground, you’d fancy Russia to walk it. As it is, they should accompany Japan into round two. Ignore their pallid performance in Dublin recently: they’ll be a very different proposition when the serious business starts.

There are some old heads left from Spartak Moscow’s all-conquering side of the mid-1990s (Nikiforov, Onopko, Karpin, Mostovoi), but the most eyecatching players will be support attackers Yegor Titov and Marat Izmailov, supporting the lone striker, Vladimir Beschastnykh.

With the exception of China, Tunisia are probably the weakest side in the tournament, and surely won’t play a decisive role in this group. They looked very poor at the African Nations Cup, where they failed to score a goal. Sacking their manager at the start of the year probably wasn’t the cleverest of moves either.

Prediction: 1 Japan, 2 Russia