The F**k Right Off France: World Cup Preview

t’s that time again. As a fully-grown man of my acquaintance said the day after the 2006 World Cup ended: ‘Why can’t the World Cup be on all the time?’ It made him sound like a whiny eight-year-old. In fact it was a spectacularly good question. Of all life’s great pleasures, very few of them are as mouth-wateringly magnificent as the World Cup. I don’t think I exaggerate when I say that it might well be the greatest invention since the aeroplane. Thirty two teams. 64 games. 150-odd goals, hopefully closer to 200. Limitless colour, drama and intrigue (Sounds like production weekends at Hot Press - Ed). And of course, the fact that it only happens once every four years. You can keep your Christmases, music festivals, holidays in the sun etc. This is the pinnacle; this is what we live for.

So far, I’ve seen seven World Cups, and it seems to get better every time. Or perhaps it was always this good, and it’s just my unbounded love of football that has deepened and deepened with every passing year, as has my appreciation of and insight into the game’s subtle nuances and endless tactical possibilities. Watching Espana ‘82 as a seven-year-old, I know that I didn’t really have a clue what was going on and why. I was vaguely aware that Germany and Austria played out the infamous ‘Anschluss’ stalemate because it would ensure both of them qualified at Algeria’s expense, that Harald Schumacher smashed three of Patrick Battiston’s teeth out because he just wasn’t a very nice man (as was often the way with Germans with moustaches) and that Scotland had been knocked out on goal difference because life just isn’t fair. I also cottoned onto the fact that you could make money from this, when a friend of mine ill-advisedly said he’d ‘bet you a million quid’ that Germany would beat Italy in the Final. (He didn’t actually have a million quid with which to honour his bet when it went tits-up, so I settled for taking 50p a day off him until he grew heartily sick of it, which didn’t take too long. He still owes me at least 999 grand, but I’ll let it go).
Nonetheless, for all my youthful ignorance, the spectacle held me spellbound. I don’t remember a great deal else about 1982, but the World Cup remains a pretty vivid memory. Nowadays, I spend my days working on the sports desk of a national newspaper, I like it a lot, and I’d like to think that I have as good a handle as anybody, on who’s likely to beat who and why they’re likely to do it. Which is why I am about to treat you to the most definitive World Cup guide you will find anywhere. Well, maybe. In outlining the prospects of the 32 nations below, I’ve been careful to avoid giving the impression that I know more than I actually do, a common pitfall with World Cup preview publications which state with certainty that some Honduran striker the writer’s almost certainly never seen in his life is ‘a fast, fierce and powerful leader of the line’ etc. I estimate that I’ve watched about 150 Premiership games this season (that’s three or four a week) and a fair amount of Spanish, Italian and Champions League action, so I’m not going into this completely blind. But I couldn’t tell you the first thing about North Korea’s goalkeeper, apart from the fact that his name is Ri Myong-Gook and that he’s very likely to have his work cut out dealing with Kaka, Didier Drogba and Cristiano Ronaldo. Truth is, one of the World Cup’s great pleasures is getting to know teams and players we’ve never seen before. Much as it’s fun to watch Wigan, Stoke and Hull slugging it out during the winter, it doesn’t quite compare with the treasures that await in the next few weeks. C.F.

There is, of course, a black shadow hanging over this World Cup: the absence of Ireland. It might have been just about bearable if we’d missed out thanks to our own shortcomings, but to fall foul of the dastardly deeds of an unscrupulous cheat and a referee who we’ll charitably assume didn’t see the incident... no, best not to go there. We don’t want to ruin the tournament. There’s a little bit of magic in everything, and then some loss to even it out. The Greatest Show on Earth is now upon us, and it’s there to be enjoyed to the full. Have a fantastic month. Here goes...

GROUP A
This is the one we would have been in, but we’re not, so we’ll deal with the group as is rather than as should be: SOUTH AFRICA, FRANCE, MEXICO and URUGUAY. This was a reasonably cushty draw for the French, but it certainly isn’t the cakewalk it might appear. In truth, France are a pretty pale shadow of the team that dominated the footballing cosmos about ten years ago, and their unforgettable run to the Final in 2006 now looks like the final flourish of their greatest generation. Zidane, Desailly, Pires, Blanc, Thuram, H***y, Deschamps: these were mighty players, and to this day, they haven’t been adequately replaced. Zidane’s loss in particular has left a gaping black hole to be filled. Some observers speak very highly of the likes of Gignac, Gourcuff and Toulalan, but on the evidence I’ve seen, they’re scarcely fit to lace their predecessors’ boots. The stewardship of eccentric manager Raymond Domenech is also a crippling handicap.
Of course, they have their good points. Tricky winger Florent Malouda was arguably the best player in the Premiership this season, and his fleet-flooted Chelsea colleague Nicolas Anelka would be on any list of the ten or twelve most formidable strikers on Earth. T*****y H***y has undoubtedly been one of the greatest strikers of his generation, a sublimely dazzling talent who has brought pleasure to millions – but the pleasure has been entirely cancelled out by the fucker’s unspeakable shenanigans in Paris, and more pertinently in terms of France’s prospects this summer, he’s very definitely past his sell-by date as a top-level striker, as his recent flirtation with West Ham confirms.
In all honesty, it would be no great shock to see France crash out in round one. The South Africans are desperately lacking in overall quality (Benni McCarthy and Steven Pienaar being the pick of the bunch) and may need more than a few favourable refereeing decisions to avoid being the only host nation ever to fall at the first hurdle. But Mexico and Uruguay are both very dangerous foes. Uruguay are notoriously brutal in the tackle, and it woudn’t exactly be unheard-of for the French to take fright at physically intimidating opposition. Diego Forlan is also an exceptionally prolific goalscorer. As for the Mexicans, they’re every bit as robust as Uruguay, technically very gifted, have learned to defend nearly as well as any top European side, and know how to sting opponents at speed on the counter-attack. This is a pretty tough group to call, but the Foul Play vote narrowly goes to France and Mexico.

GROUP b
ARGENTINA go in pursuit of their first World Cup since 1986, when the almighty Diego Maradona practically won the thing single-handedly, repeatedly setting off on slalom runs through six – and seven – man defences, and beating them. Now, almost unbelievably, he’s managing the team at a World Cup. While (in the aftermath of Paris) I now fully understand the misgivings English fans harbour about old Diego, I must confess I love the guy to bits. Read his autobiography, and tell me you don’t agree. Certainly eccentric, probably mad, Maradona has by far the most chequered, colourful life story of anybody in world football. A raving communist and recovering coke addict who’s prone to sprinkling his press conferences with obscenities, he celebrated World Cup qualification by pointing at his nethers and telling all the journalists in Argentina ‘you can suck this, and keep on sucking’.
As you might imagine, he is perhaps not the most coolly cerebral of the 32 managers at the Finals, and to be honest, Argentina were an absolute mess in the qualifiers, with Diego chopping and changing incessantly. They barely made it. Still, they can call upon the best player in the world right now: the spellbinding Lionel Messi, whose best displays for Barcelona this season were beyond belief, rattling off hat-trick after hat-trick, and scoring four goals against Arsenal in the Champions League quarter-finals. His team-mates aren’t exactly a bunch of plodders either: the array of possibilities in the forward line is mouth-watering, with Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain, Diego Milito and Carlos Tevez. The defence is rock-solid, with Walter Samuel and Gabriel Heinze a fearsome proposition physically, and Javier Mascherano a brilliantly reliable anchor-man in front of the back four. The widespread suspicion lingers that Diego hasn’t got a clue tactically, but the pure talent in the ranks is more than enough to overcome any organisational shortcomings.
They shouldn’t be too taxed to get through a group that contains NIGERIA, SOUTH KOREA and GREECE. The Nigerians have a definite edge on the other two in terms of talent, with Yakubu, Oba Martins and John Obi Mikel head and shoulders above anything in the Greek or Korean ranks, with the honorable exception of Man United’s tireless Park Ji-Sung. It’s difficult to evaluate the Koreans (most of whom ply their trade in their domestic league) without having seen too many of them play in the last four years, but they’re invariably fast, direct, fit and well-drilled. Greece might not strike terror into anyone, but they’re unlikely to be a soft touch: pound-for-pound, they punch well above their weight. 71-year-old manager Otto Rehhagel miraculously led them to win Euro 2004 with a sequence of grim-faced 1-0 wins, and the blueprint remains a simple one: suffocate the opposition and pick them off from set pieces. They are more than a tad one-dimensional, though, and haven’t done a great deal at international level since that astonishing summer. And there’s a general lack of creativity in the ranks. Argentina should sail through this group, with Nigeria just about edging second spot.

GROUP c
ENGLAND lead the parade here, and no matter how hard you try, it’s impossible to see them failing to overcome the challenge posed by SLOVENIA, ALGERIA and the USA. I actually have a few English friends and I hope they enjoy the World Cup as much as possible, but not to the point of winning it, a prospect which simply doesn’t bear thinking about.
To be dispassionate about it, England have a panel of players easily good enough to win the big one. We’ve seen enough of Messrs Gerrard, Lampard, Cole, Terry, Ferdinand etc week-in week-out to know what they’re capable of, and as for Wayne Rooney, he seems to have emerged from a different planet. The only discernible weakness is between the sticks: if West Ham’s Rob Green is the best they can manage, it might be worth their while recalling Dave Seaman (46), Peter Shilton (60) or Gordon Banks (72). They also have decades of under-achievement and the attendant psychological scars to contend with, but under Fabio Capello’s steely-eyed guidance, this may not matter too much, though you certainly wouldn’t fancy their chances in a penalty shoot-out. Will they end 44 years of hurt? Probably not. Will they come very close? Probably.
I’m no authority on the Algerian and Slovene national teams, but I think it’s fair to say the USA look very well-positioned to come through with England, and you wouldn’t be entirely stunned to see them crack the quarter-finals (as they managed in 2002). Hard-working, dogged and determined, they can call on a handful of quality Premier League operators (Landon Donovan, Clint Dempsey and Jozy Altidore) and will run and run until they drop. Defensively, they leave quite a bit to be desired, though ‘keeper Tim Howard will be one of the better shot-stoppers on display. They have decent players, but mainly they have steel balls and a fantastic work ethic, qualities which might just be enough to get them into the knockout stages.
Slovenia play neat, clever, crafty football, and knocked out the Czechs and Russians to get here. They are not overflowing with star quality – in fact, the only player I’ve seen with any frequency is the energetic West Brom midfielder Robert Koren – but are entitled to respect on the basis of their results. Still, with a starting XI drawn from the likes of Tom Tomsk (it’s in Russia), Gent (Belgium) and Wisla Krakow (Poland), the suspicion must be that a place in round two is the absolute ceiling of their ambitions. The same goes for Algeria, whose results in the recent African Nations Cup (they lost 3-0 to Malawi and 4-0 to Egypt either side of beating the Ivory Coast) indicate that consistency perhaps isn’t their strong point. England and the USA to advance, then.

GROUP d
GERMANY: the most beautiful nation on Earth, with the most happy-go-lucky, carefree, fun-loving people. They embody the all-singing, all-dancing Samba spirit of the Beautiful Game like no-one else.
OK, perhaps I exaggerate. But the fact is, just as Brazil have departed hugely from stereotype in recent years, so too have the Germans, slowly but surely discarding their historical image as grindingly dull pragmatists. The average Germany game these days features plenty of goals, and a more cavalier approach (at both ends of the pitch) than ever before. They were arguably the most entertaining team on display at the 2006 tournament, albeit on home soil. At the same time, there’s now a perception that they’re less intimidating foes than they used to be. Impotent performances in 1998, 2000 and 2004 went a long way to shatter their Rasputin-like reputation as the world’s hardest side to beat on the big occasions, and the conveyor belt of talent coming through has fallen off considerably in the last 15 years. Of the current squad, only Chelsea’s Michael Ballack (who is showing signs of wear and tear) and the Bayern Munich triumvirate of Lahm, Schweinsteiger and Klose can honestly be considered A-list players, and the manner of Bayern’s defeat to Inter in the Champions League final suggests that they might still be relatively easy pickings for the very best teams at the Finals. While their limitations will most likely preclude them from winning the whole thing, it’s nonetheless timely to invoke the one cliche without which no World Cup preview would be complete: never, ever, ever, ever write off the Germans. They finished second in 2002 and third in 2006 with relatively undistinguished squads, and it doesn’t take a gigantic leap of faith to see them reaching the Final or even winning it.
That said, their group is a killer, and they may do well to survive it. AUSTRALIA, SERBIA and GHANA are all capable of going a long way. The Aussies are beginning to establish themselves as serious players on the world stage, and were brutally unlucky to bow out narrowly to eventual winners Italy last time out. A well-drilled unit whose line-up has been stable and settled for years now, they’ll give away no favours at the back, though their best hope for goals may well be Everton midfielder Tim Cahill, whose perfectly-timed runs into the box will surely be good for a goal or two. Man for man, Serbia are far more formidable than the Australians, but they also have a propensity to implode at major tournaments. The spine of the team – fearsome Man U centure-back Vidic, energetic Chelsea right-back Ivanovic, classy Inter creator Stankovic and the towering 6-foot-8 target man Zigic – is as good as any team’s. Their mental strength remains a question mark. As for Ghana, a colossal amount depends on the fitness of Chelsea’s Michael Essien, possibly the most consistently powerful midfield operator in the known universe. They had considerable difficulty finding the net during the recent African Nations Cup, but will be tricky to break down. This group will almost certainly go down to the last day: the nod goes to Germany and Serbia.

GROUP e
DENMARK, HOLLAND, JAPAN and CAMEROON... this won’t be dull. The Dutch are generally a joy to behold, and have a fantastic set of forwards: Van Persie, Kuyt, Robben, Huntelaar, Van Nistelrooy, van der Vaart (we’ll draw a discreet veil over Ryan Babel.) They made mincemeat of their (admittedly pathetic) qualifying group, winning all eight games with a 17-2 goal difference. There’s no reason to suspect they’ll blow up against better opposition: at the last Euros two years ago, they destroyed Italy 3-0 and France 4-1. Wesley Sneijder has become a genuinely world-class playmaker under Jose Mourinho’s guidance at Inter Milan, with Nigel de Jong and Marc van Bommel adept at the spade-work in midfield. And so far, there isn’t a whisper of the in-fighting and personality clashes that have marred previous campaigns. In fact, by all accounts, the team spirit is excellent. At 11/1, they could well be the best value bet at the Finals.
Denmark aren’t quite as prodigiously talented, but have a strong spine, with Daniel Agger and Simon Kjaer likely to be a watertight pairing at centre-back. Niklas Bendtner and Jon Dahl Tomasson could fire more blanks than bullets up front, but the former might mature into an A-list striker sooner rather than later, and might relish the big stage. One hopes the Danes’ manager Morten Olsen minds his manners when they come up against Cameroon, having observed of Senegal in 2002 ‘They are like animals and we never should have taught them how to play football’.
Cameroon aren’t world-beaters, though Inter forward Samuel Eto’o often comes close to being one. Almost all the squad play at a decent level in Europe, but their over-reliance on Eto’o has been noted by opponents, and it may be that the Danes have enough know-how to keep him quiet. Japan are a bit of a mystery, with only ex-Celtic man Shunsuke Nakamara a familiar face to most of us. Recent form isn’t too auspicious (draws against Venezuela and China, and a 3-1 loss to South Korea) but they keep the ball pretty well, and will run themselves into the ground for the cause. Chances are it won’t be enough: Holland and Denmark to qualify.

GROUP f
ITALY defend their title, and though they didn’t look in the least bit formidable during a qualifying campaign wherein they twice drew with Ireland, they will surely make short work of PARAGUAY, NEW ZEALAND and SLOVAKIA. The Italians arrive with more or less the same personnel who won the prize four years ago, so despite their unconvincing recent results, it would be insane to dismiss them out of hand. Gigi Buffon remains one of the world’s three or four best ‘keepers, and the defence is as tight as ever (though Fabio Cannavaro is 36 and surely won’t be the almighty force he was last time out). A physically brusing midfield (Gattuso, De Rossi,Camoranesi) is lifted above the ordinary by Andrea Pirlo’s sublime precision passing, while striker Alberto Gilardino can be a mighty force on his day, though he hasn’t always shown it consistently. A worry must be that six of the likely starting XI have spent the year playing for a Juventus side whose stock has plummeted to an all-time low. Nonetheless, they’re still Italy, have unparalleled know-how and savvy when it comes to winning knife-edge encounters, and will probably reach the quarter-finals at least.
The other three won’t be winning any World Cup. New Zealand are surely the weakest of the 32 finalists. They hail from a rugby-crazed land where football is seen as a frankly effeminate pursuit akin to ballet or playing with Barbie dolls, and made it to the Finals by overcoming the might of New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji and Bahrain. (Whereas we had to contend with Italy, Bulgaria and France). Some of you may be familiar with towering striker Chris Killen (formerly of Hibs and Celtic, now re-united with Gordon Strachan at Middlesbrough) and the Blackburn centre-back Ryan Nelson: the rest of the crew play for the likes of Wellington Phoenix and Auckland City, and an early plane home looks a certainty.
Slovakia may take umbrage at Italy manager Marcello Lippi’s observation that they ‘play a typical Czech style of football’ but we know what he meant: they’re comfortable in possession, pass it around swiftly and keep the ball well. The same applies to Paraguay, though the South Americans are probably a more physically formidable proposition. They didn’t look any great shakes in their recent friendly defeat in Dublin, but are renowned for sky-high team spirit, and have sworn to sweat every last drop in honour of their team-mate Salvador Cabanas, who miraculously survived being shot in the head in a bar in Mexico City. He’ll miss the tournament, but could well have quite a big spiritual influence on his comrades’ efforts. I’ll go for Paraguay to follow the Italians through, possibly on goal difference.

GROUP g
This is the one. The ‘Group of Death’. An utterly savage group: BRAZIL, IVORY COAST, PORTUGAL and NORTH KOREA. While the first three teams contain plenty of familiar faces, very little is known about North Korea. Well, this is not quite true: we know that they are armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons (which probably won’t be used during the World Cup, but their opponents have been warned), that the Dear Leader is a strange fish altogether, that the population are ordered to subsist on grass, leaves and rats as ‘food substitute’ when famine takes hold, and that the masses spill out onto the streets every night in spontaneous demonstrations of joy at the over-achievement of the latest grain quota. I’m dying to visit some day, though not with a view to living there on a permanant basis.
However, next to nothing is known about the football team that will represent the Workers’ Paradise, and I have absolutely nothing to go on apart from their results. These would indicate that they’re a very hard-nosed, well-organised, defensively sound crew who are badly lacking in firepower (the nuclear weapons notwithstanding). In qualifying, they and their Southern brethren made it through at the expense of Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE: they scored only seven goals in the eight games, but gave away a miserly five. So, clearly they’re by no means a joke team.
But as much as I wish them well, they are absolutely fucked in this group. Brazil are... well, Brazil. But not as we know them. For decades now, they have produced better footballers in greater quantities than any other nation on earth. The very name conjures up images of breathtaking Samba skill, dazzling dribbling, audacious overhead kicks, 30-yard swerving frees, and a somewhat laissez-faire approach to the defensive side of the game. The latter is the reason why they’ve ‘only’ won the World Cup five times.
However, this Brazilian vintage is managed by the redoubtable Dunga, who captained them to win the thing in 1994, and it shows. Four years ago, they arrived as defending champions with Ronaldinho, Ronaldo, Roberto Carlos and seemed to buy into notions of their own invincibilty, but were dismantled in the quarter-finals by a Zidane masterclass. This time out, they’re a very different animal. They now defend as well as anybody on the planet (goalie Julio Cesar and centre-back Lucio were major factors in Inter Milan’s Champions League triumph), are increasingly well-versed in the black arts of cynical gamesmanship, and work like dogs when not in possession, a concept somewhat alien to their illustrious predecessors.
Up front, they may not have an embarrassment of riches compared to the likes of Spain or Argentina. But Luis Fabiano has been lethal for Sevilla all season, and Kaka at his best is a master conductor every bit the equal of Zidane in his prime. If they defend as well as they have done for the last two years, they may not need to rattle in three goals a game to win the World Cup. Their recent form speaks for itself (one defeat in 24 games, at extreme altitude in La Paz). Spain are the world’s form team and the bookies’ favourites, but Brazil might just be the likeliest winners.
That leaves a straight shootout between Portugal and the Ivory Coast for the second spot. Both nations have the talent to conceivably go all the way. The Ivory Coast will be spearheaded by the ferocious battering-ram presence of Didier Drogba: at the other extreme of the aesthetic spectrum, Portugal have Cristiano Ronaldo, a truly spellbinding winger who surely needs no intoduction to anyone who hasn’t been on Mars for the last five years. The Portuguese are very strong at the back, with the Chelsea pairing of Paulo Ferreira and Ricardo Carvalho, and with Ronaldo and his former Old Trafford comrade Nani firing the bullets up front, they would be a shoo-in to qualify from any other group. But the Ivory Coast are probably the beat team ever to emerge from Africa. Drogba and his Chelsea pal Salomon Kalou finished the season in imperious form, Barcelona’s Yaya Toure might be the best defensive midfielder on the planet, his brother Kolo and Emmanuel Eboue aren’t exactly slouches at the back, and the team spirit appears to be strong, whereas Portugal is reportedly an unhappy camp with Carlos Queiroz not a popular manager (the players object to being shown too many DVDs) and the age-old problem of tension between the Sporting, Benfica and Porto contingents.
So, the temptation is to pick the Ivory Coast. But I’ll side with Portugal for two reasons: Sol Bamba and Boubacar Barry, two accidents waiting to happen in the West Africans’ rearguard. Centre-back Bamba plays for my beloved Hibs and has given me heart failure more often than I care to remember, playing a major part in the implosion of our SPL title challenge since Christmas – while our friend Barry may well be the worst of the 32 goalkeepers on show this summer, having committed a preposterous pile-up of slapstick errors between the sticks for Belgium’s Lokeren.
So, Brazil and Portugal get the nod.

GROUP h
SPAIN are possibly the hottest World Cup favourites in living memory. And not without good reason. They have a ridiculous embarrassment of riches in every position, and have been winning games non-stop for quite a long time (41 wins, three draws and one defeat in their last 45 outings). The goals are flowing. The midfield is stunningly good: Barcelona visionaries Xavi and Iniesta, David Silva and Xabi Alonso annex complete control of possession, hardly ever missing a pass. As the once-great French striker T*****y H***y has observed: ‘You simply can’t get the ball off them’. Up front, few would dispute that Fernando Torres and David Villa are the most lethal strike force in Europe. The back four (Capdevila, Puyol, Pique and Sergio Ramos) has been under-worked for some time because Spain’s opponents tend to spend 70-80% of the time chasing shadows, but they’re all hugely capable – and if all that wasn’t enough, goalie Iker Casillas is probably the finest shot-stopper in the world. There isn’t a weakness anywhere in the team. Almost unbelievably for such a football-mad nation, Spain haven’t reached the last four since 1950. This team will surely break with that tradition.
The poor unfortunates facing them in the group stage are CHILE, HONDURAS and SWITZERLAND. I admit I haven’t seen Honduras play,but their team sheet won’t cause Spain too many sleepless nights. Spurs’ powerhouse midfielder Wilson Palacios is a first-rate player, while Wigan’s Maynor Figueroa scored arguably the goal of the season from inside his own half against Stoke. The only other players currently operating at an elevated level of football are Julio Cesar de Leon (Torino) and David Suazo (Genoa); the rest are still in Central America. It’s hardly inconceivable that they could spring a surprise, but the safer choices would be Chile and Switzerland.
Chile could be the competition’s dark horses: they sailed through qualifying in some style, and place great stress on all-out attack, with a 3-3-1-3 set-up making them probably the most adventurous team at the Finals. Unfortunately, the defence is about as strong as you’d expect from a team whose right-back is called Waldo Ponce (I can see the replica shirts flying off the shelves). In total contrast, Switzerland are all about defensive solidity: they were arguably the dullest team on show in 2006, but won their group and went out on penalties after an unbelievably uneventful 0-0 draw with Ukraine, having kept four clean sheets in as many games. No harm to them, but one hopes Chile get through at their expense. Which I suspect they will.

CRAIG's PREDICTIONS
Quarter-finals: France-England, Germany-Argentina, Holland-Brazil and Italy-Spain.
Semi-finals: England-Brazil and Argentina-Spain. The Final: Brazil and Spain.
The Winners: Brazil.

The World Cup kicks off on June 11 when South Africa take on Mexico