The Threat of War: "[Trump] wants to isolate Europe"

For ancient Romans, the god of beginnings was Janus, who gave his name to January. With his double-sided head, he could look back and forward and so, with each New Year, we and our single-sided heads do likewise.

Since we are entering the second quarter of the 21st century, we’ll lean into longer, generational perspectives.

In 1975, there was little optimism when people speculated about the next 25. In the Camberwell Carrot scene in Withnail And I, Danny the drug dealer sums it up: “They’re selling hippie wigs in Woolworths, man. The greatest decade in the history of mankind is over”.

It was all eerily similar to today. There was war in the Middle East and Persian Gulf, and global economic conflict. Upheavals had begun in September 1972, when Palestinian militants took members of the Israeli Olympic team hostage in Munich. Then came the 1973 Yom Kippur War, pitting Egypt and Syria against Israel.

The Arab oil embargo on the US and other supporters of Israel triggered a global economic recession, the effects of which lingered for many years. It was bad. Think of The Commitments.

Then, in 1979, Iranian Islamists overthrew the Shah of Iran, a man whose father had been installed by the US and UK in 1953 as they deposed the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh.

And so on, and on.

Music reflected this turbulence and sense of dread. Prince’s ‘1999’ (1982) is often thought of as a party cracker, but it’s apocalyptic too: “When I woke up this morning / Could have sworn it was judgement day / The sky was all purple / There were people runnin’ everywhere / Tryin’ to run from the destruction / You know I didn’t even care”.

Sounds like 9/11! But that was still 17 years away. But the apocalypse was postponed. The Berlin Wall came down and with it the Iron Curtain, and eejits began to talk of the end of history and the hegemony of the western liberal economic model.

In Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement closed the Troubles (more or less). The economy stabilised, and then prospered, under the rainbow coalition. The hyperdrive of Celtic Tiger II came later...

So, as the millennium dawned it seemed that things could only get better, provided the Y2K bug didn’t destroy all digital equipment at the stroke of midnight. Which it didn’t.

And then, out of the blue came 9/11 and the skies grew dark again, shaping the next two decades and more.

The most immediately visible sign was the heightened security.

Beyond that, militant Islam became a semi-cohesive global movement characterised by religious fervour, nihilistic violence and a reversion to 7th century desert Arab social, cultural and religious norms, as witness the repressions of the Taliban and Islamic State.

The mullahs rebranded terrorist actions as a war against the West and its “Crusaders”. The West responded in kind and Trump’s America is part of that.

Wars and climate change cause huge population displacements which have poisoned the rivers of our compassion.

At home the Celtic Tiger crashed headlong into the banking crisis.

In parallel, the digital age entered its second stage of growth with the launch of the first social media. It showed huge promise until it didn’t.

And so, as the second 25 years take off, we again find ourselves wanly contemplating the apocalypse to come.

It’s a jungle out there, a cacophony of self-absorption, prejudice and vile echoes with no redeeming features.

Once upon a time there was some modest consensus. The rules were often broken but at least there were rules, and a measure of stability.

Now? Behold a Pale Horse. Chaos is close at hand. And war. And greed. The first commandment for today’s USA seems to be “The Biggest Pig Gets The Most Swill”.

There’s coarseness, callousness, prejudice, intolerance, exploitation and abuse: look at the hot water that Grok finds itself in over nudification. Musk’s reaction? Emojis signifying “you boo-hooing cry babies”.

LIES AND SCAMS

Rules have changed: Thou shalt not covet they neighbour’s wife? Thou most certainly shall! And thy neighbour’s house as well. Every day brings floods of lies and scams and distortions, conspiracies, porn and prejudice. Lies aren’t sinful any more, they’re instrumental.

The far right has shown itself to be both shameless and adroit in exploiting the possibilities of digital technologies.

And, behold a mirror image of Islamic fundamentalism: American-style evangelical Christian fundamentalism.

Dominating all this is the 24-hour television presence of Donald Trump, even when he nods off, which he does.

Italy’s fascist dictator Benito Mussolini was known to invoke the slogan uno duce, uno voce: one leader, one voice. But America’s duce is starting to babble, spouting even more fatuities and nonsense.

It’s certainly possible that he’s still in possession of his full senses, in which case he has complete contempt for all other voices.

But maybe he’s actually as confused as his rambling monologues suggest. In which case, whose opinions is he voicing? Who’s in charge? And is this why conspiracy theories are a dominant thread in US politics?

Internally, the US is more polarised than ever, political repression is growing, and the president keeps pushing to expand executive power and smother American democracy.

Externally, he envisages America dominating the western hemisphere, that is, America north and south, saying that the US should “surround ourselves with good neighbours”. He‘s clearly okay with enforcing his (personal) notions of what that means.

Trans-Atlantic relations have wilted during trump’s second administration. He wants to isolate Europe and end multilateralism and the post-World War II consensus.

Remember, the US midterm elections are in October. The ruling party usually suffers. One of the classic ways of reviving a slumping administration is to go to war. Watch out.

His administration has just seized the Venezuelan President, Nicolás Maduro, an action contrary to the beliefs and values of Magamaniacs about US intervention abroad.

Where might he strike next? Cuba, Colombia, Canada? Mexico? If he invades Greenland all bets are off.

Meanwhile, Russia’s war on Ukraine continues. And Gaza and the West bank are still running sores.

And while all that shit plays out, we also have to contend with the ever-faster development and deployment of AI and AGI. And climate change.

The wildest forecasts see AI essentially ending all work. Up here on Hog Hill we don’t see it any time soon. But there’s no doubt that AI is going to be tremendously disruptive, and not in good ways.

Looking forward, we’d hope that the next 25 years will see the world emerge from the current disorders, wars and chaos. We like challenges, we don’t like threats. Fruitfulness, peace and harmony would be great.

The Roman god Janus presided over the beginning and ending of conflict, and hence war and peace. The gates of the Temple of Janus in Rome were opened in time of war and closed to mark the arrival of peace.

They’re open now. We’d love to see them closed.

• The Hog