WE RE heading for some kind of watershed, I m told. And yet, no matter how hard I try, there s nothing happening in the Northern peace talks that I can become even the remotest bit enthused about.
For a long time, there ve been hints of a settlement in the North. People who have been closely involved in the peace process are publicly claiming that this is still on . But for most observers, whatever sense of anticipation they might originally have felt when the ceasefires were announced by the IRA and by loyalist paramilitaries, is long gone. There was some basis flimsy, admittedly for hoping that the very fact that guns were removed even temporarily from the equation might facilitate a bit of fresh thinking. Well, that s not the way it s turned out. Instead, that initial sense of optimism about what politics and politicians might deliver has gradually been eroded, and we are forced to face the fact that the end game may simply be another version of the old stalemate.
If so, the grim truth is that the paramilitaries are likely to be back in business. Is this what we want?
So let s go back to a few basics. I know that it may be difficult for certain unionists to accept but there has been a hugely significant shift in the Sinn Fiin bottom line. Unionists are concerned that the Republican objective of a united Ireland in the long run is not being abandoned completely. But the willingness to accept a cessation of the armed struggle when that objective has not been achieved in itself is radically new.
I have no doubt that Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness, Pat Doherty and other key figures in Sinn Fiin remain committed to this peace strategy. That they were able to bring the vast majority of Republicans with them in the first instance was a remarkable achievement. But there is no question but that to keep the broad mass of the Republican movement on board, they needed something back from Unionism, involving a similarly significant shift regarding first principles.
Instead, we have been treated to a series of awful and stupidly childish gestures: Jeffrey Donaldson tearing up the framework document while David Trimble chortled; Ken Maginnis throwing a St Patrick s Day display into the river because it contained two small tricolours.
Nowheresville.
Here s what I think will happen, unless there is some greater sign of a willingness on the part of Unionist leaders to work towards an accommodation with nationalism.
It was always obvious that Gerry Adams and those close to him at the helm of Sinn Fiin would not be able to bring the entire Republican movement along with them in the party s peace strategy. The only question was this: how many are likely to defect? If they had anything tangible to sell to the faithful, 90% of activists would remain on board. Under present circumstances, that is unlikely to happen.
In other words, unless there is some currently unforeseeable breakthrough, either Sinn Fiin will split from the IRA or up to half of the active members of the IRA will move on to the Continuity IRA.
How bad is it likely to get, in this kind of post- settlement scenario? That depends. I ve been thinking about Articles 2 and 3 of Bunreacht na hIireann recently and I ve come to the conclusion that since I m no great fan of the Constitution in the first place, I ve no particular fondness for these particular paragraphs either.
I will say this, however. If Articles 2 and 3 are abandoned by the Irish government for no apparent worthwhile gain, then the numbers joining the Continuity IRA will be proportionately bigger. The number of deaths that will follow will be higher. And we will be as far, or nearly as far, from a solution as ever.
Anyone in his or her right mind genuinely wants to see an end to the crazy violence and bloodshed that has blighted life in Northern Ireland for so long. Anyone in his or her right mind genuinely wants to see an end, too, to the useless conflicts which absorb a vast amount of energy that could otherwise be put to good, constructive use. If getting rid of Articles 2 and 3 would bring us one step closer to that end, then I d say, scrap em in the morning but my gut feeling right now is that any decision of that kind is likely to have the opposite effect.
There, you see I nearly got myself excited! But I didn t.
The terrible conclusion that the majority of ordinary, reasonable people are likely to be forced to is that the politicians and the political process have let us down again. It will then come back to those same ordinary, reasonable people to work towards finding a way forward that renders both the political behemoths and the paramilitaries redundant.
It may be a painstaking process but it can be done. Certainly when you go one step beyond the vested political interests, there s a huge amount of goodwill on all sides.
The challenge is to translate that into structures that will take us into the new millennium free of the grim spectre of violence.
Finally.
Niall Stokes
Editor