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For many years, predicting the outcome of an Irish election was fairly simple. We had a “two and a half” party system: Fianna Fáil went up against a Fine Gael-Labour combination, with the Soldiers of Destiny usually edging it. Or if they didn't, there was always the possibility of hooking up with Labour.

Maybe it’s a by-product of the Celtic Tiger, with its countless varieties of coffee and what-not, but in recent times we’ve seen the political menu expand dramatically. Which makes it all the harder to predict what combination of parties will be in office once the dust has settled after polling.

The current Fianna Fáil–PD coalition is hoping to be re-elected. That seems unlikely to happen, judging by the opinion polls. But the same polls indicate that the “alternative government” proposed by Fine Gael and Labour won’t be strong enough to take over the government Mercs.

That brings the Green Party, Sinn Féin, and perhaps some of the independent TDs into the mix. The Greens say they’d prefer to link up with FG and Labour, but Fianna Fáil has been making eyes at them lately. Sinn Féin are still beyond the pale, say the other parties – but you never know what might happen if the numbers are right.

THE PARTIES

Anyway, before our heads start spinning in anticipation of the post-election merry-go-round, let’s remind ourselves who the main players are. Ireland’s biggest parties, of course, are Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. While the two parties have a long and bitter rivalry, going back many generations, you might find it hard explaining to a foreigner what their differences actually are.

It goes back to the Civil War. If you weren’t paying attention in history class, Ken Loach and Neil Jordan have both made films about it. But as far as today’s debates are concerned, there’s not much between the two parties. They both like to think of themselves as pragmatic, and tend to favour right-of-centre economic policies.

We can be sure that one of these two parties will be leading a government after the election. According to Progressive Democrat chief Michael McDowell, what really matters is who their junior partners are. Or as he put it: “It’s not the more bulky bread which gives a sandwich its taste. Rather, it’s the meat which gives a sandwich its flavour.”

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Daniel Finn