 From :
evil_giraffe
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Posted : 05/04/12 at 12:27 |
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| We have to leave the euro.
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From :
number10
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Posted : 05/04/12 at 14:30 |
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This is not at all a disrespectful question: do you really think that an Irish currency would not get savaged?
Alternatively (or in addition) that we would have to charge far higher interest rates, potentially crippling business?
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From :
evil_giraffe
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Posted : 05/04/12 at 15:23 |
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Yes it would get savaged. It would find it’s true value. We need a weaker currency. Let it fall then peg to something else….Sterling, Dollar, the Yuan….the Euro....gold.
Sky rocketing interest rates would be the least of our worries. For a start we’d have to take the banks out the back and shoot them. No deficit, everyone paid in IOUs or potatoes for the first 6 months.
It would be absolute chaos for at least a year….and the Germans would give us the silent treatment for like forever….or until they want some potatoes.
I don’t think we should be the first to jump, but there’s no point in privatising the air we breathe and then doing it.
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From :
evil_giraffe
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Posted : 05/04/12 at 15:31 |
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When I’m not sure of an opinion I’ll generally express it anyway but exaggerate it to the point where I can step away from it. I’ve been doing that with the “Leave the euro” opinion for ages now. I was doing it a few weeks ago in email exchange with a couple of friends about this referendum and what would happen if there was a no vote and I came up with the following (which doesn’t sound all that bad compared to the alternative).
”I kinda want to see what would happen too.
I’d imagine our bond yields would go through the roof and the money, that apparently has been flowing into “Our banks” over the last six months, would reverse course pretty quickly. The latter would normally be a big deal but these banks are dead anyway. They’re on life support directly from the ECB (not through the EFSM) and are of no use to anyone.
In theory, other than that, nothing should change (here) immediately.
We would definitely need more money from the EFSM/IMF next year (because of the bond yield thing), but most people agree that we’re going to need that anyway.
But….after a no vote the ECB would be breaking their rules if they gave us access to that. The purpose of the IMF is to provide such “Support” (to keep our important creditors paid (important does not include people reliant on the state for anything other than food)) in circumstances where no one else will…so in theory they should step in.
In reality though, a no vote would mean that the EFSM would lose credibility (not that it really has any anyway), which would impact Italian, Spanish, Belgian, French Bond Yields also….then all bets are off. Spain in particular are proportionately sitting on as much, if not more, property debts than we were.
The powers that be would have to try to “Regain credibility”.
Waiting for a second vote is pretty much the exact opposite of “Regaining credibility”.
So I think their most likely reaction would be to try to force us out of the euro…..but on their terms, not ours. Basically….”give us the title deeds to your water, roads, forests, electricity supply, etc. or you can’t pay your cops next week” (they’re paying our cops remember?). We hand over the deeds then they tell us to fu(k off out of the euro.
They’re doing this slowly anyway….but the whole process would have to be sped up….to make an example of us and show that they’re “Serious about tackling the debt problem”.
We don’t need their help if we balance the budget overnight and renege on debts incurred rescuing “Our banks”. But that would involve hard choices and decisive action….and if there’s one thing Irish people hate it’s hard choices.
Even if the powers that be do manage to succeed in “Regaining credibility” whilst we queue for bread, Spain is still fu(ked. No amount of confidence is going to clean up their Cajas.
We’ll assume that the ECB have picked up the tab for “Our banks” (because we told them to fu(k off). The reason they’ve done this is because the whole world is wired to explode because a tiny default is magnified by financial products called derivatives.
But it’s generally agreed that, unlike Ireland, no one can pick up the tab for Spain without massive quantitative easing (which the ECB have been kinda doing for the last few years anyway)….if it gets to that stage you’re looking at Germany leaving the euro.
But Deutsche Bank are the bank who are generally regarded as most exposed to this derivatives time bomb. Do you want to tell the German savers that their money’s gone or will I?
So meanwhile, back in Ireland, after twelve months of horrible shit, we’ve managed to pick ourselves up, our currency’s worth fuck all but this acts as a natural disincentive to import what can be manufactured here, we’ve achieved the long sought after competitiveness, personal debts can be redenominated in our local currency, civil servants and semi state employees can be paid what they’re worth (considerably less than they’re paid now). Private sector wages in the exporting industries should rise relative to others. Solicitors, accountants and estate agents have infested Sinn Fein and turned it into a populist centre left party, not unlike Fianna Fail. We’re some sort of associate member of the EU and there’s a big market for IT products because of rearmament in Europe.
Alternatively we could vote yes, keep the head down and cut the deficit as quickly as possible. Maybe kick up a stink beforehand to get “Our” bank debt kicked down the road a bit.
Confounding the public declarations of the greatest financial brains on the planet this will not solve the problems of Spain, France, Belgium, Italy, etc. (because crossing your fingers and hoping for the best does not make problems as large as this go away). It’s only a matter of time before they start breaching the limits that the no campaign here are telling us are permanent and irreversible.
This is what happened with the Stability and Growth Pact that we all signed up to in Maastericht.
If this starts to happen, and we have managed to get our deficit down to a level where we no longer need external “Assistance” there’s nothing to stop us having a referendum to permit us implement countercyclical spending policies again (not that we ever have done so successfully in 90 years of independence).
If it starts to happen and we are still running a daft deficit, it doesn’t matter a fuck because we’ve to do what we’re told anyway.
Either way it looks like the whole thing is going down but I don’t think Ireland should be the first to jump off.”
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From :
hydra
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Posted : 05/04/12 at 16:54 |
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| That's gonna be a pain in the arse working out the price of a pint when abroad though.
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From :
number10
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Posted : 05/04/12 at 19:45 |
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| Straight to the point, Hydra. I like your style...
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From :
evil_giraffe
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Posted : 09/05/12 at 21:58 |
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Spanish banks are where "Our" banks were in September 2008.
Bad buzz.
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From :
number10
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Posted : 10/05/12 at 10:55 |
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| Spot on, Evil. Very bad buzz...
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From :
tricky
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Posted : 10/05/12 at 11:01 |
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| the big thing is the interest rate, I know you can argue that there's a lot of people with their heads below water already, but if we saw the interest rises in mortagages that would come from being back to the punt, the people who ARE paying their debts wouldn't be able to, leading to a total meltdown in the existing structures. I know it's bad out there already but I think it's impossible to figure how societal structures would cope with that kind of shock.
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From :
evil_giraffe
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Posted : 10/05/12 at 12:17 |
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A lot (not all) of the people who are servicing their debts are directly, or indirectly, reliant on a bankrupt state for the income that they are using to service this debt.
If something can’t go on forever, it’ll stop.
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From :
evil_giraffe
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Posted : 10/05/12 at 12:30 |
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I’m beginning to think that there won’t be a referendum at the end of the month.
I’m beginning to think that if there is, it’ll be rejected.
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From :
hydra
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Posted : 10/05/12 at 14:22 |
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So does my question from last year come into play - Will we still be using the Euro by the year's end?
If it gets rid of those fucking 1c and 2c coins... then good.
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From :
number10
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Posted : 10/05/12 at 15:48 |
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| Always look on the bright side, the bright side of life.... (All together now)...
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From :
evil_giraffe
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Posted : 10/05/12 at 20:20 |
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There’s no precedent for this. The breakup of the gold standard in the thirties? The American Civil War?
My gut says we’ll still be in the Euro at the end of the year but won’t be in 18 months. That’s what, November 2013?
Greece could be gone before the end of the year. It wouldn’t do for this to be seen as anything other than a catastrophe for the Greek people…. “pour encourager les autres” and all that.
Military coup? Sher why not?
The Spanish Banking system is (was) composed of hundreds of regional quasi independent banks called Cajas. To get anything done anywhere you had to be mates with the local bank manager. A bit like here (or anywhere really) but the potential for acting the bollox was many times greater in Spain. And act the bollox they did. They had a property bubble as big if not bigger than ours, which burst shortly after ours, but the implications of facing up to this were so great that they’ve managed to sweep it under the carpet until now. A bunch of these Cajas were combined into one bank in 2010. This bank was nationalised yesterday (their Anglo?). Nouriel Roubini has mentioned a potential debt hole of €250 Billion. I don’t have a PHD, but I look at Spain and I look at Ireland and I say that figure is too small. Much too small.
How’s Greek style austerity (not Irish Austerity….we haven’t had austerity at all yet) gonna go down in a country where they all hate each other anyway?
As for France, what are the French going to do when they realise that Hollande has as much an intention of fulfilling his election promises as Eamon Gilmore had here? Shut their country down that’s what. “Lend us more money to fund our deficit or we’ll stop working 32 hours a week”. Good luck with that lads.
This of course all leads back to German Banks. The powers that be in Germany have finally started talking about printing over the last few days….well they have to don’t they?
Don’t they?
That’s not going to go down well at all, at all. Initially only because of a fear of inflation, rather than actual inflation. If anything the drop in the value of the Euro would boost German exports to China even further. But they have elections scheduled towards the middle or end of next year. If Merkel prints, Merkel goes. I don’t know who’s waiting in the wings, but I think that lady with the shopping bags from Father Ted, giving out about them feckin’ Greeks would do quite well.
So where does that leave us?
I say vote yes, keep the head down, slash the deficit, print punts and store them in a big fuck off warehouse, just in case we need them.
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From :
evil_giraffe
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Posted : 11/05/12 at 14:52 |
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Boards No 54% Yes 31% Sample Size 355
Politics.ie No 63% Yes 32% Sample Size 1201
Politicalworld No 63% Yes 12% Sample Size 80
Propertypin No 49% Yes 27% Sample Size 156
I used to dismiss these online polls as unrepresentative but Boards and Politics.ie were the only polls that called the first Lisbon Referendum correctly and Boards were accurate to .1%
Why has there been no poll published in the media in nearly 3 weeks?
If it looks like it's gonna go down the government would love nothing more than to pull it, and blame the French or Germans or Greeks or whatever, but I don't think they can because the referendum bill has been passed.
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From :
number10
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Posted : 11/05/12 at 15:58 |
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| Could they not postpone it?
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From :
evil_giraffe
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Posted : 11/05/12 at 16:39 |
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What do the no side want? The Shinners, RBB, JH, SWPA? Most of them want the treaty to pass by a narrow margin.
That's politics.
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From :
evil_giraffe
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Posted : 11/05/12 at 16:41 |
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Ah yeah....Deletey McDelete....make me look like I'm talking to myself do.
(I don't use the term Shinners generally...I was quoting snapshot)
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From :
snapshot
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Posted : 11/05/12 at 21:46 |
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Yeah, sorry. Posted, then thought the language was a bit harsh, deleted, got distracted, closed my tab on chrome, and then said "ah fuck it, whatever" and went home.
Whatever about the vote, I only use the term Shinners because it's quicker to type than terrorist-supporting pseudo-fascist rabble-rousing nationalist-socialists.
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From :
number10
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Posted : 12/05/12 at 12:37 |
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| I'd have thought The Terrorist-supporting Pseudo-fascist Rabble-rousing Nationalist-socialists.was a pretty catchy name for a political party...
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