 From :
tricky
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Posted : 14/05/12 at 13:16 |
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whatever about the boards one where the population is relatively broad based the others are either
a) WAY too small a sample
b) WAY too skewed a population
Boards is still too small a sample and while I'd argue that the denizens of it are a pretty unique subset of the population they are somewhat representative of 'the average' person.
The Red C poll in the SBP struck me a being WAY too high on the yes side
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From :
number10
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Posted : 16/05/12 at 13:31 |
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I saw some Libertas posters in town today urging people to vote No.
I am now thinking of voting Yes.
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From :
bigtom
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Posted : 16/05/12 at 15:22 |
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| I thought the Sunday Business Post poll results were surprising, if they can be believed. 61% Yes, 39% No. It's easy enough to pick your pollsters, if you know what you're doing. But right at the start of this that's the numbers I thought, 60/40, and I reckon that's what it'll be, if nothing strange (Robots given Vote) happens in the mean-time. It's easy to forget that it's the plain people of Ireland who'll decide, the silent majority. They'll look at who's saying Yes, and who's saying No. I think we've been playing the game in the only rational way that's been open to us, keep engaging, do what our lenders ask us to, etc. It's the quickest way out of this mess.
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From :
bigtom
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Posted : 16/05/12 at 15:49 |
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| If there is one at all, of course... if there is one, it'll involve us having long term access to the market, for that we desperately need to create a "little high, little low" scenario. People are shouting about the people on the lower rungs of society bearing the brunt of the austerity policies, without admitting how much worse things could be. Scare-mongering can back-fire and is not a good way to campaign, but it's appropriate. "Look at what's happening in Greece" is appropriate. I agree that Sinn Fein and the ULA would be completely fucking mortified if this thing was actually stopped. They're talking out of both sides of their mouths, as usual. Instead of working to make constructive suggestions as to what sort of policies would protect the people really in need, they show-boat on pie-in-the-sky bullshit scenarios that they hope will never happen. It's frustrating. This old left-right divide has been exposed to be a circus, and a distraction. There must be a better way to do things. ("Eh, Comrade?!")
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From :
bigtom
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Posted : 16/05/12 at 15:59 |
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Ganley's vision for Europe, by the way http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Comment/Opinion/Correct+p ast+mistakes%2C+vote+no+to+the+treaty/id/19410615-5218-4fae- 9784-f30c32283576
I'm sorry but I couldn't be fucked linking. Declan's vision of Europe is The United States of Europe, with this person:
"Voters should be weighted in an 'electoral college' type format so that the voters of smaller member states are not made irrelevant. This president would serve for one six-year-term only, and would be chief executive in the same manner as the president of the United States."
telling us all what to do, and
"The union should have monopoly of external action both in soft and hard power."
a big-ass Army at his disposal.
The fact that Declan is in the business of providing communications solutions to Armies has nothing got to do with this, whatever.
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From :
ttemme
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Posted : 16/05/12 at 16:10 |
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| y'ure in fly'ng form, bigtom. suddenly everyth'ng you're saying seems right. wouldn't trust that fella gangley. i mean ganley.
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From :
bigtom
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Posted : 16/05/12 at 16:11 |
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| Declan's fantasy super-army has nothing to do with the fiscal referendum, of course. Vote Yes, children, or Vote No. Just vote, every chance you get.
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From :
bigtom
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Posted : 16/05/12 at 16:17 |
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| It's funny you should say it, Niall Stokes told me that himself and O'Brien are the cause of the re-appearance of white dog-shite over the past year. Had you noticed? Given the chance to run a quick study on it, I can say with some certainty that white dog-shit is, in fact, old dog-shit. The plan is for the nation's foot-paths to be desecrated with the stuff, for long enough that people get tired of it. Then what happens is that Ganley and Mick McDowell come to power in a fascist dictatorship, and we'll all accept it, because the Sunday Indo will trumpet the fact that "At Least All The Dog-Shit Is Gone!" After that, it's pretty much Robots all the way.
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From :
igor
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Posted : 18/05/12 at 09:29 |
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| Ah shure, isn't that always the way?
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From :
number10
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Posted : 18/05/12 at 13:45 |
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Gas stuff - Richard Bruton admitted on Matt Cooper yesterday that in the event of a no vote a rerun would be likely.
Jaysus, we'll have to avoid the expense of that, as the fella said!
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From :
bigtom
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Posted : 18/05/12 at 15:28 |
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| He's a brainy man, but he seems out of place in the cut-throat world he inhabits. I was thinking last night (I'm single), about Sinn Féin's attitude to everything. I reckon they're stuck in a conflict mind-set. They seem to view things in terms of zero-sum games, i.e. one side wins and one side loses, or there's a draw. Their proposed tactics are all about threats and confrontation, we'll refuse to accept the terms the state has already signed up to in terms of bailout obligations, we'll block as much as we can of what has been agreed by the governments of the eurozone as regards how countries are to fund themselves, we'll reject the plans that have been worked out and sure, they won't lock us out of the ESM. It wouldn't be in their interest to let us fail, so they'll have to do what we want. It's the political equivalent of taking the pin out of a grenade and saying "here's what we want". This type of thinking belongs to the early part of the last century. We work by consensus and co-operation, we try to ensure everybody is happy.
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From :
bigtom
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Posted : 18/05/12 at 15:44 |
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| Did yis all see "A Beautiful Mind", your man John Nash worked on theories of how co-operation worked in market economies, i.e. non-zero-sum games. When I say Sinn Fein are stuck in a confrontational mind-set, what I mean is that they don't seem to understand, or they want to pretend that they don't understand, is that we're not playing a zero-sum game. It is very much in our interest that the other players in the game, principally the other countries in the euro, continue to prosper. I don't think we should play chicken with the fate of the EU, which is what Mr. Grecian 2000, whatever his name is, wishes to do. An "Us and Them" mentality is not appropriate when the principal idea of the EU is co-operation between nations.
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From :
bigtom
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Posted : 18/05/12 at 15:47 |
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| (You know the way the band played on while the Titanic sank? I wonder what your man on the double-bass thought of that idea?! "That's very big of you, with your Maracas!")
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From :
bigtom
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Posted : 18/05/12 at 16:12 |
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From
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forbes_Nash,_Jr.
:"Then gradually I began to intellectually reject some of the delusionally influenced lines of thinking which had been characteristic of my orientation. This began, most recognizably, with the rejection of politically-oriented thinking as essentially a hopeless waste of intellectual effort."
Cheers Johnny! I'm away on the batter. Fuck yis all, and yisir respective horses, also. Happy weekend
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From :
number10
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Posted : 20/05/12 at 15:39 |
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Hope you had a nice cool beer, bigtom.
Do the Greeks make bbeer?
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From :
rowan
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Posted : 20/05/12 at 17:34 |
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They make and drink Ouzo.
Wouldn't a double-bass float?
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From :
tornaxx
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Posted : 20/05/12 at 21:16 |
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In theory, yes. Should I learn how to play the psaltery that I bought a while ago?
Also, I think I want to vote No but I think I will vote Yes in the referendum. We'll see...
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From :
tricky
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Posted : 21/05/12 at 11:19 |
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| m'eh I'm a bit the same. I don't ACTUALLY have a problem with the terms of the treaty, but I didn't have a problem with terms and conditions of Maastricht which nobody bothered sticking to. However, I fail to see how this treaty can actually solve the ongoing issues.
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From :
number10
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Posted : 21/05/12 at 12:15 |
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| A horribly significant number of people seem to feel exactly that way, wanting to voe 'No' to stick it to the political classes but thinking that the end result of a No vote overall might well be to make things worse than they are at the moment. It is a very weird situation.
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From :
gladys
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Posted : 21/05/12 at 12:55 |
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Tricky, I'm not doubting that you haven't thought long and hard about this but as a parent, are you not concerned about the legacy you might be passing on to your child/children? Voting yes in this treaty will mean cutbacks of at least €4 billion a year for twenty years with crucifying implications for health, education, social welfare etc. for working people and the most disadvantaged in society. Ireland has one of the highest level of debts in the EU and under this treaty it has to be reduced mind bogglingly quickly. Why should our society be pulverised to meet targets set by EU? Furthermore, if we don't comply with the slashing of public services, we will be hauled before the EU Court of Justice and have ludicrous fines imposed.
The treaty outlines that it can determine 'the nature, size and timeframe' of cuts. Should we really give this level of power to the unelected EU Commission?
The treaty will effectively outlaw state investment to creat jobs. As private sector investment has ground to a halt, the state should be allowed to step in with a public works programme to create jobs. This treaty puts the kibosh on that.
Has anyone really looked at the immunity clauses contained in the ESM?
[Article 27, line 4]: “The property, funding and assets of the ESM shall . . . be immune from search, requisition, confiscation, expropriation, or any other form of seizure, taking or foreclosure by executive, judicial, administrative or legislative action.” Question: . . . [T]his means that nei...ther our governments, nor our legislatures, nor any of our democratic laws have any effect on the ESM organization? That’s a pretty powerful treaty!
[Article 30]: “Governors, alternate Governors, Directors, alternate Directors, the Managing Director and staff members shall be immune from legal process with respect to acts performed by them . . . and shall enjoy inviolability in respect of their official papers and documents.” Question: So anyone involved in the ESM is off the hook? They can’t be held accountable for anything? . . . The treaty establishes a new intergovernmental organization to which we are required to transfer unlimited assets within seven days if it so requests, an organization that can sue us but is immune from all forms of prosecution and whose managers enjoy the same immunity. There are no independent reviewers and no existing laws apply? Governments cannot take action against it? Europe’s national budgets in the hands of one single unelected intergovernmental organization? Is that the future of Europe? Is that the new EU – a Europe devoid of sovereign democracies?
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